Analyzing trades on Thursday:
EUR/USD on 30M chart
EUR/USD was about to continue its decline but stopped near the previous daily low. The attempt to start an upward correction also failed. As a result, the pair spent the whole day in a sideways channel with the volatility of about 70 pips. This volatility level is considered enough for the euro, but at the same time, there was no trend movement, which made trading difficult. First of all, yesterday's publication of the Fed's minutes, which came out later than the article was published, provoked just a slight reaction in the foreign exchange market. This did not cause any significant price changes. Yet, it should be noted that the Fed once again confirmed its hawkish stance on monetary policy. This is another factor to support the strengthening of the US currency. There is still no trendline or channel as the two pivot points are missing. Thus, a downtrend is obvious, but at the same time, there is no trendline. There was no important macroeconomic news on Thursday. The only more or less important report - retail sales in the EU - turned out to be weaker than expected. However, the euro began to rise after its publication, so it is unlikely that the market had reacted to it.
EUR/USD on 5M chart
On the 5-minute time frame, the movement on Thursday was weak. Actually, this week was not rich in fundamental or macroeconomic events. Yesterday and today, the pair was clearly trading in a flat channel with all emerging consequences. The first trading signal of the day was formed when the price broke through the level of 1.0902. Subsequently, the pair dropped to the next level of 1.0874, so it was possible to earn 10 pips with this trade. Also, traders could have followed a buy signal near the level of 1.0874. The price went up more than 50 pips, breaking through 1.0902 on the way. The quote was not able to move lower and also failed to reach the next target level of 1.0945. Thus, beginners could close long positions manually in the late afternoon near the level of 1.0902, which could bring them another 10 pips of profit. Thus, we managed to close the trade with a minimal profit despite a prevailing flat movement. On Friday, the trajectory of the pair may remain the same as there will be no important macroeconomic data. Instead of the level of 1.0945, I put 1.0938 on the chart.
Trading tips on Friday:
On the 30-minute time frame, the downtrend continues although it is still impossible to form a channel or a trendline, since at least two pivot points are missing. The European currency may continue to fall to its local lows, which are now located around the level of 1.0806. The fundamental and geopolitical background still does not support the growth of the European currency. On the 5-minute chart on Friday, it is recommended to trade at the levels of 1.0806, 1.0874, 1.0902, 1.0938, 1.0966, 1.0989, and 1.1038. You should set a Stop Loss to breakeven as soon as the price passes 15 pips in the right direction. No important events are planned for Friday both in the EU and the US. Any news on the geopolitical front is unlikely to support the European currency. Therefore, if there is no news, the flat movement will most likely continue.
Basic rules of the trading system
1) The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took the signal to form (a rebound or a breakout of the level). The quicker it is formed, the stronger the signal is.
2) If two or more positions were opened near a certain level based on a false signal (which did not trigger a Take Profit or test the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals at this level should be ignored.
3) When trading flat, a pair can form multiple false signals or not form them at all. In any case, it is better to stop trading at the first sign of a flat movement.
4) Trades should be opened in the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the US trading hours, when all positions must be closed manually.
5) You can trade using signals from the MACD indicator on the 30-minute time frame only amid strong volatility and a clear trend that should be confirmed by a trendline or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 pips), they should be considered support and resistance levels.
On the chart
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14, 22, and 3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend patterns (channels and trendlines).
Important announcements and economic reports that can be found on the economic calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommend trading as carefully as possible or exiting the market in order to avoid sharp price fluctuations.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management is the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
