At the 4-hour TF, bitcoin consolidated below the ascending trend line, as we expected. Recall that last weekend, we repeatedly drew attention to the corrective status of the bitcoin movement and expected that its growth would not continue for a long time. At the moment, the cryptocurrency is falling to the level of $ 40,746, which is a kind of pivot in recent weeks and months. Overcoming it will allow bitcoin to continue falling in the direction of the already real goal - the level of $ 34,267. From a technical point of view, a new trend is emerging in the 4-hour TF.
New sanctions for the Russian Federation.
Meanwhile, the military situation in Ukraine has improved slightly in the last two weeks. First, Russian troops were pushed back from four regions and completely abandoned. One can argue for a long time as to whether the Russian units withdrew on the orders of the Kremlin or were pushed back by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but the fact remains that four regions of Ukraine have been liberated. Second, active military operations are now being conducted only in the East of Ukraine. However, this is where the positive news runs out. Negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow can be considered a failure since the Arakhamiya and Medinsky groups did not come to any consensus. Moreover, it seems that what the delegations agree on does not suit Lavrov and Kuleba, who then make statements that do not correspond to the results of the negotiations.
According to many military experts, the Kremlin is going to focus its attention on the Eastern regions of Ukraine, since the Russian Federation simply does not have enough military resources to capture the whole of Ukraine. According to unconfirmed information, a covert mobilization has begun in Russia, within the framework of which they want to call up about 60 thousand more soldiers to participate in a special operation in Ukraine. Thus, in the near future, the conflict may flare up with renewed vigor. In addition, missile strikes continue on many strategic targets in various regions of Ukraine. Moreover, rockets often arrive at civilians, as was in Kramatorsk. In general, there is no question of any completion of the military operation yet. Bitcoin may seem to have started ignoring what is happening in Eastern Europe, but this week it started falling again. I started when, it would seem, the conflict subsided. Therefore, we believe that along with the tightening of the Fed's monetary policy, the geopolitical conflict in Ukraine will continue to put pressure on the cryptocurrency market. It should be borne in mind that all those investors who fled the Russian Federation and Ukraine through cryptocurrencies have already done so, so it is no longer necessary to count on an increase in demand for bitcoin at the expense of these people.
On the 4-hour timeframe, the quotes of the "bitcoin" are fixed below the trend line, so the decline may continue in the coming weeks. It was necessary to sell bitcoin when the price broke the trend line. The goal is $ 40,746. A further drop with a target of $ 34,267 if the level of $ 40,746 is overcome.
