Yesterday\'s market movement looked like a swinging pendulum. If at the first part of the trading day the pair was under the bears\' pressure and could reach the low at 1.4884, then on the back of the gold and the European stock market growth it almost fixed the yesterday\'s high level of 1.4984.
The US fundamental data became a sharp reversal in this motion, these statistics disappointed market participants, causing a slight purchasing wave of the single currency against the US dollar. The trades closed with the advantage of 5 points in favor of the Euro. The trading volatility came to 102 pips.
The fundamental review:
The German business climate index showed the increase to 93.90 versus the experts forecasts, who were waiting for this indicator to appear at 92.50. I remind you that this index demonstrated the uprise to 91.90 in October, 2009.
The French consumer spending also rose by 1.10%. The analysts predicted that this indicator would grow only by 0.50%, after the upturn by 2.30% in October.
The preliminary US GDP data in the third quarter of the current year came at the level of +2.8% and was not in line with analysts\' forecasts, who were sure in rising by 2.9%.
Case-Shiller US Home Price Index dropped by -9.4% in September, 2009, experts were looking for the decline of this indicator only by -9.1%. The core PCE in the third quarter appeared to be at the level of +1.3% compared to the forecast of +1.4%.
The technical picture:
The pair could break through the upper levels of downward price channel, which were located near 1.4902 and 1.4944 and managed to close above them, speaking about serious intentions to start its recovery. The 50th figure level can only keep the pair\'s growth, which has been testing its strength for the second sequent week.
Yesterday pair decrease also was restricted by the 200 day exponential moving average. At the present moment the 100 day exponential moving average breached the 200 day one bottom – up, demonstrating us the continuation of the uptrend.
MACD indicator is in the purchasing area.
Bollinger bands upwardly unfolded, speaking about the pair\'s increase continuation. The middle bands line, located near 1.4969, can keep the possible short – term correctional pair\'s decline in the nearest time.
Today\'s recommendations:
The support levels: 1.4969, 1.4934, 1.4902.
The resistance levels: 1.5000, 1.5050.
Today I recommend to buy the pair at the 1- hour timeframe closing above the level of 1.5003 with the target — T/P 1.5044 and S/L 1.4968.
Sell the pair at 1- hour timeframe closing below the level of 1.4951, with the target — T/P 1.4909 and S/L 1.4979.
Best regards,
Analyst: M. Magdalinin.
