Analysis of previous deals:
30M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The GBP/USD pair also tried to continue the growth on Thursday, which did not really have any clear grounds. Recall that last night the euro and the pound began to grow sharply, and it is still unclear as to what caused the fall of the US currency. There are several versions, but each of them has its flaws. For example, the version about the preparation for the European Central Bank meeting has a flaw in the form of "what does this have to do with the British pound"? So something happened yesterday. Either only in the foreign exchange market, or somewhere in the world. I want to believe that the first option is correct. The geopolitical situation now, to put it mildly, remains tense and it concerns not only Ukraine, but also the whole of Europe. After it became known about the desire of Finland and Sweden to join NATO, a new series of threats and "warnings" from the Kremlin to European countries and in the opposite direction began. In particular, Poland stated that they are ready for war with Russia if it attacks any EU or NATO country. Thus, as we said earlier, it is absolutely impossible to exclude that the military conflict in Ukraine will grow into something much larger. Naturally, the foreign exchange market will not be able to react to these events. In the meantime, the British pound is falling again, and there were as many reasons for this fall today as there were reasons for growth yesterday. The trend is uncertain now, there is still no trend line.
5M chart of the GBP/USD pair
On the 5-minute timeframe, the pair's movement on Thursday was as unpredictable as possible. The 1.3145 level is a new one, Thursday's high, so it did not participate in today's trading. The pound started to fall around the time when the US trading session opened, a little earlier. The first trading signal was formed when the price surpassed the 1.3102 level. It should have been practiced with a short position. Subsequently, the price fell to the area of 1.3042-1.3049, from which it rebounded, forming a buy signal. Therefore, it was necessary to close short positions at a profit of about 35 points and open a long position. However, the upward movement did not begin as of Thursday evening, so this transaction should have been closed manually in zero profit. As a result, it was not possible to earn a lot today, nevertheless, a small profit on the movement, which was very difficult to predict, is also good. The volatility of the pair is high for the second consecutive day, tomorrow we expect it to decrease and calm the market.
How to trade on Friday:
At the 30-minute TF, the pair is already moving according to its own rules and logic, which is inaccessible to ordinary market participants. The pair was openly flirting for four days, then for no reason showed an increase of 170 points, and the next day, also for no reason, a drop of 110. Thus, there is no clear trend now, and there is no trend line, and it is also impossible to understand how the pair will move in the near future. On the 5-minute TF tomorrow, it is recommended to trade by levels 1.2913, 1.2981-1.2993, 1.3042-1.3049, 1.3102, 1.3145, 1.3210. When the price passes after opening a deal in the right direction, 20 points should be set to Stop Loss at breakeven. No important events are scheduled for tomorrow in the UK, and a report on industrial production will be published in the US, which is unlikely to provoke a serious movement in the market. However, what we observed on Wednesday and Thursday makes us wary of trading on Friday.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
