AUD/ USD declined amid the strengthening of the USD and has now reached an important support level of 0.7365 (50 EMA on the daily chart). AUD still maintains a strong position against the backdrop of rising energy and commodity prices. A slight decline in AUD/USD is still possible, up to the key support level of 0.7330 (200 EMA on the daily chart and 50 EMA, 200 EMA and the lower line of the ascending channel on the weekly chart).
Our main scenario would be to enter long positions from the current levels with their strengthening near the support level of 0.7330. More cautious purchases of AUD/USD will be associated with the breakdown of resistance levels 0.7403 (200 EMA on the 4-hour chart), 0.7439 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart), and the pair's return to the ascending channel on the daily chart.
Note that its upper limit lies in the range between 0.7660 and 0.7730, which will become the targets (within 1-3 months) in case this scenario develops. The breakdown of these resistance levels (0.7660, 0.7730) will be considered the final exit of AUD/USD into the long-term bull market zone.
In an alternative scenario, and after the breakdown of the support level of 0.7365, the AUD/USD will continue to decline, and the confirmed breakdown of the support level of 0.7330 will signal the pair's transition to the bear market zone with targets at the local support levels of 0.7175, 0.7085, 0.7037 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level to a wave of the pair's decline from the level of 0.9500 in July 2014 to the lows of 2020 near the level of 0.5510), 0.7000, 0.6970.
Support levels: 0.7365, 0.7330, 0.7300, 0.7200, 0.7175, 0.7100, 0.7085, 0.7037, 0.7000, 0.6970
Resistance levels: 0.7403, 0.7439, 0.7465, 0.7510, 0.7555, 0.7615, 0.7660, 0.7730, 0.7815, 0.7835, 0.7885, 0.7900, 0.8000
Trading tips
Sell Stop 0.7345. Stop-Loss 0.7410. Take-Profit 0.7330, 0.7300, 0.7200, 0.7175, 0.7100, 0.7085, 0.7037, 0.7000, 0.6970
Buy Stop 0.7410. Stop-Loss 0.7345. Take-Profit 0.7439, 0.7465, 0.7510, 0.7555, 0.7615, 0.7660, 0.7730, 0.7815, 0.7835, 0.7885, 0.7900, 0.8000
