In today's article on the main currency pair of the Forex market, we will summarize the results of yesterday's trading and try to determine the prospects for closing the current trading week. So, the speeches planned yesterday by the President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Christine Lagarde, as well as the speech of the chairman of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) of the USA Jerome Powell, as expected, did not give new food for thought to market participants. Lagarde continues with surprising tenacity to expatiate on the conditions of the current uncertainty. At the same time, there are no specifics in the speeches of the head of the ECB. Meanwhile, an increasing number of ECB monetary officials intend to advocate for the early start of monetary policy tightening. So Lagarde's deputy Luis De Guindos spoke in favor of a very likely increase in the main interest rate in July this year. In this regard, it is worth noting that some representatives of the ECB intend to advocate an increase in the rate by 50 basis points at once. In particular, such a "hawkish" position is taken by the head of the Bank of Austria, Robert Holtzman.
Yesterday's speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was more focused on the Ukrainian events. At the same time, the official noted that although the United States is far enough from the epicenter of events, the conflict in Ukraine may negatively affect the US industrial sector, as well as continue to influence the growth of inflation. If so, then the Fed's actions to tighten monetary policy should be even more aggressive. It seems that this is exactly what the bidders were thinking because there was a sharp change of mood.
Daily
As expected the day before, yesterday the EUR/USD currency pair tried to continue its growth and rose above the significant technical level of 1.0900. However, after the bulls reached the euro level of 1.0935, market sentiment changed sharply, and the pair turned down. As a result, Thursday's session ended with the formation of a bearish candle, which in its shape resembles a reversal model of candle analysis "Tombstone". But only in form, not in essence, because there is nothing to expand. Let me remind you that this candle is considered a reversal when it appears at the very end of the upward movement, which, of course, is not observed in the current situation. Now, at the moment of completion of the article, the euro/dollar trades are held near 1.0820. It is quite logical to assume that the struggle for the closing price of the week will be conducted relative to the key level of 1.0800. If the bears manage to close the week below this level, we should expect the continuation and even strengthening of the downward scenario. Otherwise, there will be the possibility of another or even several attempts by players to increase the exchange rate. Nevertheless, we must admit that the position of euro bulls is much weaker than that of their competitors. Yesterday's closing of trading under the red line of the Tenkan Ichimoku indicator adds bearish colors to the price dynamics of the pair. Considering that today is the last day of weekly trading, as well as the expected struggle for the closing price of the week relative to the 1.0800 mark, I propose to take a wait-and-see position and wait until Monday, when, taking into account the actual closing of the week, it will be possible to have clearer trading plans.
