During the current weekend, bitcoin is practically not moving. It has already gained a foothold below the ascending channel, as well as below the Ichimoku cloud. From our point of view, these two signals are strong, so we should expect a new drop in the quotes of the main cryptocurrency. We believe that the lows of 2022 or even 2021 are excellent target levels. The last few months, by the way, have perfectly shown how many market participants are eager to buy cryptocurrency at this time. Only "crypto experts" or those investors and industry workers who are openly interested in the growth of cryptocurrencies continue to repeat about the future fantastic growth. After falling by $ 36,000, bitcoin managed to adjust by 38.2% by Fibonacci over the same period. Moreover, the entire growth of bitcoin recently looks like a classic 3-wave correction. Thus, the probability of a new fall is very high now. Especially given the Fed's willingness to raise rates for the whole of 2022, as well as to start reducing its balance sheet from July.
Gold and Bitcoin are not the same things.
One of the most popular opinions on the cryptocurrency market, which seems to justify the further growth of bitcoin, is its "similarity" with gold. No wonder bitcoin is called "digital gold". Many experts believe that bitcoin can grow in price constantly as well as ordinary gold. We believe that this is a myth for the following reasons:
1) Gold has utility and has its value. Even if gold is not used as a means of preserving value, it can be used to make jewelry and any things that are made of metal. The value of gold is determined not only by supply and demand but also by its scarcity and complexity of extraction. Bitcoin is a useless piece of code.
2) Gold is limited in its quantities. Someone may say that bitcoin is also limited in issue, but we will not agree with this, since bitcoin is only a private cryptocurrency. And how many cryptocurrencies have already emerged in recent years? There are thousands of them and they are all about the same as the very first cryptocurrency. The meaning is almost always the same.
3) Gold does not grow forever and certainly not at the speed of light. For example, at the peak of the upward trend in 2011, it cost $ 1,912. To date, its price is $ 1,931. It turns out that, if we take the last 11 years, gold has not grown in price at all. Moreover, at the beginning of 2020, before the pandemic, a troy ounce cost $ 1,500, and in the next two years, it increased in price by $ 400-500. What does this mean? All about the same thing: gold grew because of the increase in the money supply around the world, and not because of increased popularity.
4) Investors of the "old school" believe in gold, but they do not believe in bitcoin. Recent studies have shown that the greatest amount of wealth in America belongs to people over the age of 60. Businessmen and investors at this age do not believe in any cryptocurrencies and certainly do not put them above stocks, bonds, real estate, and precious metals.
On the 24-hour timeframe, the quotes of the "bitcoin" were fixed below the Ichimoku cloud and the ascending channel. Thus, sales with targets of $ 34,267 and $ 31,100 have become relevant again at this time. The level of $ 40,746 now acts as a kind of pivot, around which the price has been spinning in the last few months. In a way, this level is the weighted average price of bitcoin. However, we believe that this level will not save the cryptocurrency from a new fall.
