If yesterday the macroeconomic calendar was completely empty, then today we will have some reports from the United States. The focus will be orders for durable goods, which may increase by 1.1%. That will contribute to the dollar's growth, as it indicates a subsequent increase in consumer activity and retail sales.
The GBPUSD currency pair, during an active decline, reached the area of the local low of September 2020 - the value of 1.2675/1.2720. This reduced the volume of short positions as a result of the price rollback.
The technical instrument RSI H4 fell to the area of the critical oversold zone 14.06. The last time this indicator value was observed was in March 2020, when the downward cycle slowed down. At the moment, this signal indicates a reduction in the volume of short positions.
The moving MA lines on the Alligator H4 and D1 indicators are directed downwards. This is a signal to sell the pound.
The daily trading chart shows a gradual weakening of the pound since June 2021. The scale of the decline is 1450 points, which is about 10.5%.
Expectations and prospects
At the moment, the market is undergoing a technical rollback stage due to overheating of short positions, as well as price convergence with the support area. The next round of the downward movement is expected the moment the price stays below 1.2675 for at least a four-hour period. In this case, traders will receive another signal about the prolongation of the medium-term downward trend, where in the future the pound may lose another 300-500 points from the value.
Comprehensive indicator analysis has a buy signal in the short term due to a pullback. Indicators in the intraday and medium-term periods signal a short position, due to the main trend.
