Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair
A signal to sell emerged in the afternoon, when EUR/USD hit 1.0712. However, the MACD line was quite far from zero, so the downside potential was limited.
Surprisingly, IFO's data on Germany's business environment, present situation and economic expectations exceeded not only the forecasts, but also the values of the previous period. That indicates that the economy is still stable even in a period of high inflationary pressure, leading to an increase in euro on Monday morning. However, pressure returned in the afternoon during the US session.
Most likely, this decrease will continue today as there are no scheduled statistics for the European economy. Such will make it difficult for euro bulls to get a hold of the market, so traders should not rush to buy at current levels. In the afternoon, a series of reports on the US will be released, one of which is the index for consumer confidence and the volume of home sales in the primary market. If their figures exceed expectations, demand for dollar will rise even higher. Data on durable goods orders and Richmond Fed manufacturing index will also affect the market.
For long positions:
Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.0729 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0773 (thicker green line on the chart). Although there is little chance for a rally today, buyers will surely protect the monthly lows. In any case, when buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.0700, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0729 and 1.0773.
For short positions:
Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.0700 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0655. Pressure is likely to return at any moment because hawkish statements by the Fed will increase demand for dollar. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Euro can also be sold at 1.0729, however, the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0700 and 1.0655.
What's on the chart:
The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.
The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.
MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
