Analysis of previous deals:
30M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The GBP/USD pair also continued its downward movement on Thursday. Moreover, it is much stronger than the EUR/USD pair. Also, the pound managed to leave the descending channel, which we initially called formal. We said that almost any correction will lead to the fact that the price will leave the channel, but this will by no means guarantee that a strong growth will begin for the pair. This is what happened in practice. A correction was not even required. The pound lost another 80 points today, although the UK did not release any important report, and the market ignored the US GDP data. Thus, once again it can be noted that the market is getting rid of the pound for geopolitical reasons, and also possibly from the "foundation". Although day after day it is becoming less and less true, since the difference between the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England is not so in favor of the Fed that the pound lost 500-600 points in just a week. As a result, the downward trend continues, but it can end at any time.
5M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The pair's movement on the 5-minute timeframe was not bad. Several trading signals were generated, most of which turned out to be profitable. First, the pair bounced off the level of 1.2502, forming a buy signal. Since there were as many as 100 points to the nearest target level of 1.2601, the long position should have been closed manually. The pair was able to go up 55 points, so there were plenty of opportunities to close the deal and make a profit. Next, a sell signal was formed near the level of 1.2502, followed by another one. Here it was necessary to open short positions, also immediately counting on their manual closure, since the nearest target level from below was also far enough away. Today's low is the 1.2410 level, which we did not encounter. As a result, the pair went down 45 points, then returned to the level of 1.2477 and bounced off it, forming another sell signal, and then it went down another 46 points. Therefore, novice traders had plenty of opportunities to close each trade in profit. Not one false trading signal.
How to trade on Friday:
The downward trend continues on the 30-minute timeframe. It is difficult to say how long the pound will continue to fall, since the market does not react to macroeconomics at this time. That is, even a potentially important event absolutely does not guarantee an upward reversal for the pair. However, the decline cannot continue forever. On the 5-minute TF tomorrow it is recommended to trade at the levels of 1.2410, 1.2477, 1.2502, 1.2601, 1.2674. When the price passes after opening a deal in the right direction for 20 points, Stop Loss should be set to breakeven. Again, no major events or publications are scheduled for tomorrow in the UK. In America, the calendar of macroeconomic events contains only secondary reports, such as changes in the level of spending and income of the American population. We believe that such data will not provoke any market reaction. However, the pound, even in the absence of news, can calmly continue to fall.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
