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FX.co ★ The cost of natural gas in Europe has decreased, but the crisis does not let go

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Analysis News:::2022-05-15T05:16:14

The cost of natural gas in Europe has decreased, but the crisis does not let go

The cost of natural gas in Europe has decreased, but the crisis does not let go

According to the results of Friday's trading, gas prices in Europe decreased by 10% to the level of $1033.3 per thousand cubic meters. The price of June gas futures on the index of the largest European hub TTF has been falling since the opening of the trading session, since the morning the quotes were at $1118.4, 2.5% lower than the estimated price on Thursday. Yesterday, the quotes were dropping abruptly, towards the end of the trading session, the level of $1028 appeared, which turned out to be the lowest for the entire trading day.

The military operation in Ukraine has become the driving force for a lightning-fast rise in gas prices in Europe. So, according to the results of February 23, the estimated price of the nearest futures was at $1038.6 per thousand cubic meters, and on February 24 it soared by almost 50%, to $1555.5.

At the beginning of the first spring month, gas quotes updated record highs for four consecutive days due to the high probability of a ban on imports of Russian energy resources. The price record was reached on March 7, when the cost of natural gas at some point reached $3,892, and the final indicator of that day was the level of $2560.

Later, the indicators of gas futures began to gradually decline, and on April 25, the lowest price for two months was fixed – $ 1027.1 per thousand cubic meters. After that, gas prices began to rise again and reached $1,370 per thousand cubic meters. A sharp increase in the cost of natural gas in Europe occurred against the background of Gazprom stopping energy supplies to Poland and Bulgaria on April 27. This decision of the Russian side was a response to the refusal of the leadership of these countries to comply with the new requirements of the Russian concern – to pay for natural gas in rubles.

According to the new scheme, Gazprombank opens special currency and ruble accounts for settlements of foreign buyers for gas. The buyer transfers funds to the first account in the currency specified in the gas supply contract, the bank sells it on the Moscow Exchange. After that, rubles are credited to the account of the buyer of "blue fuel", and with the help of this account it will be possible to pay with the gas supplier – Gazprom.

Stopping gas supplies from Russia turned Bulgaria into the fact that the local commission for the regulation of energy and water resources set a fairly high price for natural gas in May – all 13.73% higher than the previous cost.

In addition, to date, information has been received from Gazprom's official representative Sergey Kupriyanov that the transit of Russian gas through the Sukhanovka gas measuring station (passes about a third of the gas transit through Ukraine to Europe) is no longer being carried out. At the same time, the company continues to supply gas through Ukraine in the volume confirmed by the Ukrainian side to the Sudzha gas measuring station. Kupriyanov told reporters that the stop of gas supply through Sokhranovka is due to the fact that the application for the entry of Russian gas was rejected.

Trying to avoid difficulties in the energy sector, Moldova seeks to establish cooperation in the energy sector with Italy. Deputy Prime Minister of Moldova Nicolae Popescu wrote about this in his Telegram channel. He also noted that at a bilateral meeting with the Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of Italy, Luigi di Maio, the possibilities of cooperation between the two European countries in the field of energy were discussed. Popescu stressed that the experience of Italy in developing initiatives that could strengthen the sustainability of his country is extremely important for Moldova.

Austria is also looking for ways to resolve the difficulties that arise after the rejection of Russian blue fuel. The day before it was announced that the Austrian side intends to confiscate the largest gas storage facility in Salzburg from Gazprom. The Chancellor of the country threatened the leadership of the Russian concern that he would transfer the storage to other suppliers if Gazprom did not fill it with raw materials. Recall that back in March, the European Commission made sure that by November 1, 2022, gas storage facilities were at least 80% full. Operators lagging behind the specified plan under the new rules will not be able to pass certification and will lose ownership and even control over this infrastructure. The Austrian Chancellor said that as of today, storage facilities throughout Europe are being filled with might and main, but Gazprom's Haidach storage facility in Salzburg remains empty.

Due to the uncertainty in the energy sphere in the period from April to May, the eurobloc countries this year began to increase gas reserves in their countries much more actively. Today, gas storage facilities in Europe are already 38% full, which is 16.72% more than in the same period last year. And Austria is still an outsider in this race, its result is only 22.99% occupancy. And it is "Heidach" that brings the Austrians, the capacity of this storage is approximately 30% of the total volume of all Austrian reserves. Therefore, the chancellor's anxiety is understandable, it remains only to wait for an official response from Gazprom.

Analyst InstaForex
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