Hi, dear traders!
The ECB's policymakers continue to make statements about the need for interest rate hikes and their size, while the euro continues to sink against the US dollar. The European Central Bank resorts to verbal interventions, but only actual hawkish moves would make any real impact. The Bank of England has hiked interest rates several times, although market players still consider it to be insufficient. In the meantime, the ECB is only planning a rate increase in July, while market players' demands could possibly get even higher.
Some analysts now see the Federal Reserve increase the Fed funds rate by 75 basis points tomorrow instead of 50 points. However, the expected 50 point hike is more likely to occur. The US dollar went down after the previous two rate moves that matched market expectations, and the same could happen tomorrow. The US currency has already advanced significantly against other major currencies, suggesting that tomorrow's interest rate hike has already been priced in by the market.
Daily
According to the daily chart, EUR/USD has fallen into the strong technical area of 1.0500-1.0460. The pair failed to find support in this area and broke below it. However, if USD slumps tomorrow after the Fed's decision, EUR/USD could very well return above the key psychological and technical level of 1.0500. Earlier, the pair moved sideways near 1.0500 in late April and the first half of May 2022, despite bearish pressure. This period is highlighted on the chart.
Currently, the main trading strategy is opening short positions if EUR/USD retraces to the broken price range of 1.0460-1.0500. At the moment of writing, the pair advanced slightly and traded near 1.0468. However, taking into account tomorrow's policy decision by the Fed and the following press conference of Jerome Powell, setting high targets would be ill-advised. The best course of action would be taking a small profit and exiting the market.
Good luck!
