Although on Friday, the macroeconomic calendar was not rich in events, the euro was gradually gaining in value. Of course, the magnitude of the growth is not impressive, but it is still a rise. Since today the US is going to disclose a report on durable goods orders that may show a 0.3% decline, the euro is highly likely to go on climbing. The fact is that a drop in goods orders points to a possible decrease in retail sales. Notably, retail sales is the main indicator of consumer activity, which is the key driver of the whole economy. In other words, a fall in durable goods orders proves concerns about economic recession in the US. This information will inevitably push the greenback lower.
US Durable Goods Orders
The euro/dollar pair is hovering within the range of 1.0500/1.0600, locally touching one limit after another without violating the range.
On the one-hour and four-hour charts, the RSI technical indicator is moving near the upper area of 50/70, corresponding to the price movement near the upper limit of the range. On the daily chart, the indicator is in the lower area of 30/50, reflecting the mid-term downtrend.
On the same time frames, the Alligator's MAs are providing a mixed signal due to the sideways movement. At the moment, the lines are headed upward, reflecting to the price hovering between the limits of the range.
Outlook
Since the sideways movement is still intact, traders are considering the possibility of a rebound from the upper limit of the range. If the expectations come true, the quote may slow down, displaying bearish sentiment.
At the same time, traders suppose that the pair may break the range. The volume of long positions may surge if the price consolidates above 1.0600 on the four-hour chart.
In terms of the complex indicator analysis, we see that technical indicators are signaling buy opportunities on the short-term and intraday periods since the price is hovering within the range. On the mid-term period, technical indicators are pointing to a downtrend.
