Analysis of Tuesday's deals:
30M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The GBP/USD pair also continued to fall on Tuesday and only started to roll back in the afternoon. What if the euro stumbled on its way to the historical level of 1.0000 and rebounded, it is not clear why the pound/dollar pair began to correct. Of course, corrections should happen from time to time, but the euro and the pound continue to show simply fantastic correlation with each other, despite the complete absence of a fundamental and macroeconomic background. Thus, the first conclusion is that both pairs will probably continue to move almost identically. Further. We have a downward channel at our disposal for the pound, which maintains high prospects for further decline. And if the price settles above it, this will be a good signal for a significant increase in the British currency. Since the euro and the pound are traded almost identically, overcoming the downward channel can be used as a buy signal for the euro. No important event in the UK too, but Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will give a speech. However, by that time, novice traders will already have to leave the market.
5M chart of the GBP/USD pair
Tuesday's move wasn't the best on the 5-minute timeframe, but it wasn't the worst either. Four trading signals were formed during the day and all of them were near the level of 1.1875. However, it seemed like there were no signs of a flat. The 1.1807 level is new - Tuesday's low, so it did not take part in the trade. Therefore, we have four sell signals, each of which should be worked out. At the same time, each short position had to be closed manually, since there were simply no levels below 1.1875. Thus, it depends on the trader how much he/she could earn for the day. The pair managed to overcome the 1.1875-1.1898 area in the last hour, which slightly improves its growth prospects, but at the same time, we can talk about a banal correction.
How to trade on Wednesday:
The pair failed to leave the descending channel on the 30-minute TF and, having rebounded from its upper border, resumed its downward movement. At this time, a new attempt is being made to start an upward movement, but in practice, everything can end up with a banal correction. In any case, before the price settles above the channel, one should not count on a sharp growth from the pound. It is recommended to trade at the levels of 1.1807, 1.1875-1.1898, 1.1989, 1.2048 on Wednesday. When the price passes after opening a deal in the right direction for 20 points, Stop Loss should be set to breakeven. Data on GDP and industrial production will be released on Wednesday in the UK. These reports look quite serious, but in practice the market reaction to them may be minimal. The thing is that the GDP report is monthly, not quarterly. And now few people are interested in industrial production. But the US will publish a report on inflation, on which the mood of the Federal Reserve depends in the coming months. If inflation shows a significant slowdown, the Fed may raise rates at the next meeting by only 0.5%, and the dollar may fall. In any other cases, the US currency may resume growth.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the US one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
