Daily chart: USD/JPY bounced on the support level of 94.53 and this pair is now above the level of 95.00, approaching the level of resistance at 96.38. If USD/JPY manages to break that resistance, it would be expected to rise to the level of 98.25. Furthermore, there is the possibility that the pair will make a bearish rebound on this resistance and fall back to the support at the level of 94.53. If the pair manages to break this support, it is expected to fall to the level of 92.84. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory, but it is in extreme oversold, so we could see this pair continue forming a higher low pattern.
H4 chart: In this chart, USD/JPY is within a range between the levels of 95.81 and 94.08. If this pair manages to break the resistance level of 95.81, it would be expected to rise to the level of 96.70. On the other hand, if USD/JPY breaks the support at the 94.08 level, it would be expected to drop to the level of 92.56. It is very likely that this pair manages to break this resistance and go up to the level of 96.70, however, it would be very difficult for this pair to break the resistance at the 96.70 level due to the proximity it has with the 200 day moving average. MACD is still in a positive territory, so a bullish outlook for this pair today would be very likely.
H1 chart: Near the support at the 94.77 level there is a Point of Control (POC), with strong support in this pair. Because of this, USD/JPY has established a bullish trend in the short term and thus the bullish outlook will remain in place at the technical level. If USD/JPY manages to break the resistance at the 95.62 level, it is expected to rise to the level of 96.02. On the other hand, if USD/JPY breaks the support at the 95.21 level, it would be expected to drop to the level of 94.77. USD/JPY stays below the 200 day moving average and the MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. Most likely this week, USD/JPY will have a bearish rebound in the SMA 200 and continue the long-term bearish trend.
Fundamental outlook: For today's session, FOMC Economic Projections will be published at 18:00 GMT in the United States. These projections could produce very high volatility during the time in all the USD pairs, so we recommend caution while trading during that hour. Also, the FOMC Press Conference is scheduled for 18:30 GMT.
Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD/JPY pair breaks with a bearish candlestick, the support level is at 95.21, take profit is at 94.77, and stop loss is at 95.62. Place buy (long) orders only if the USD/JPY pair breaks with a bullish candlestick, the resistance level is at 95.62, take profit is at 96.02, and stop loss is at 95.23.
