Analysis of Tuesday's deals:
30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Tuesday, as if nothing had happened. After the upward move continued for three days, we were able to form an uptrend line that now supports the bulls and is a great visualization of what is happening in the market. Today, traders had a reason to buy the euro, as the EU published a report on inflation, which showed its next acceleration to 8.6% Y/Y. The only problem was that the pair began to grow much earlier than the release of the report. Nevertheless, it is possible that traders started working on this report in advance, since it was not difficult to predict the next acceleration in price growth. Thus, the euro rose, most likely on the expectation that the European Central Bank will now raise its key rate by 0.5%, not 0.25%. From our point of view, this is a very presumptuous statement, but the main thing is what the majority of players in the market think. In any case, the euro fell in price very strongly and for a very long time, therefore it deserved at least a technical upward correction. Now, until the price settles below the trend line, the upward trend will continue.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The trading signals on the 5 minute time frame on Tuesday were very good because the movement during the day was very good. Although a really trendy movement was observed only in the European trading session, it was possible to make good money even on it. The first signal to buy with an error of 1 point was formed near the level of 1.0123. The price rebounded from this level and rushed up, breaking the levels of 1.0162, 1.0190 and 1.0235. The pair failed to settle below the level of 1.0235, although it tried to do so at least three times. There was no other sell signal either. Therefore, novice traders had to open only one trade on Tuesday - to buy. It had to be closed manually in the late afternoon, and the profit on it was about 110 points. One trade, strong trending movement, no false signals - almost a perfect day.
How to trade on Wednesday:
The downward trend has finally reversed on the 30-minute timeframe as the pair has been rising for more than three days now. Now, while the price is above the trend line, we can expect further movement to the upside. Of course, we still doubt that the euro is able to grow long and strong in the current circumstances. Moreover, the results of the ECB meeting will be announced on Thursday, which can greatly affect the pair's movement. We think it's best to draw conclusions on Friday. On the 5-minute TF on Wednesday it is recommended to trade at the levels of 1.0123, 1.0162-1.0190, 1.0235, 1.0277, 1.0354. When passing 15 points in the right direction, you should set Stop Loss to breakeven. There will be no important reports or events on Wednesday in the European Union and America. Thus, there will be nothing for traders to react to during the day. Nevertheless, the pair continues to show enviable volatility and a good trend. Therefore, good movements can be observed on Wednesday.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the US one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
