The intrigue is that investors have no idea what to expect from today's board meeting of the European Central Bank. Of course, the refinancing rate will be raised, but what's next is completely unclear. What exactly ECB President Christine Lagarde will say about the pace and extent of the tightening of monetary policy parameters will determine the further development of events. This uncertainty is the reason for the apparent stagnation in the market. The pound ignored even the data on consumer prices, the growth rate of which accelerated from 9.1% to 9.4%. That turned out to be slightly less than the forecast of 9.5%. And this can be interpreted as a sign of a possible slowdown in inflationary processes. Which of course is an extremely positive thing.
Inflation (UK):
So, the ECB today for the first time since July 2011 will raise the refinancing rate. It should be raised from 0.00% to 0.25%. The very fact of the first increase in interest rates in more than ten years will, of course, spur the market and lead to the growth of the single European currency. Through the dollar index, it will pull other currencies with it. So it will be like a global weakening of the dollar. But what happens after that depends solely on Lagarde's rhetoric.
Refinancing rate (Europe):
It is necessary to take into account the fact that quite recently everyone was sure that the refinancing rate would be raised by 50 basis points, that is, up to 0.50%, and then expectations were significantly reduced. In addition, the head of the Bundesbank recently announced the need for an extremely cautious approach to the issue of raising interest rates, as this will lead to an increase in the yield of government bonds of all countries in the euro area. The debt burden of which is already incredibly high. So they may find themselves in a situation of inability to service their own debts. From all this, a simple conclusion follows - Lagarde will announce just an extremely slow increase in interest rates, and that the next increase may occur in just one meeting. Or something like that. And if this is exactly what happens, then after a slight upward jump, the single currency will again begin to gradually lose its positions and move towards parity. Pulling the pound along.
If Lagarde's rhetoric turns out to be more hawkish, and a large-scale tightening of monetary policy is announced, then the subsequent weakening of the dollar will be much more impressive, and most importantly, prolonged.
The correction move for the GBPUSD pair slowed down within the area of the psychological level of 1.2000. As a result, a range of 1.1950/1.2050 emerged, which indicates the process of accumulation of trading forces, which can lead to new price jumps.
The RSI H4 technical instrument is moving in the upper area of the 50/70 indicator, which indicates a continuing corrective move in the market. RSI D1 ignores the correction, the main reference is the downward trend.
The moving MA lines on the Alligator H4 indicator are directed upwards, which corresponds to a corrective move. While the MA lines on Alligator H1 have a lot of intersections with each other, which indicates congestion.
Expectations and prospects
In this situation, the method of outgoing momentum from the current range of 1.1950/1.2050 is considered the most optimal trading tactic.
We concretize the above into trading signals:
Long positions on the currency pair are taken into account after keeping the price above the value of 1.2060 in a four-hour period.
Short positions should be considered after keeping the price below 1.1920 in a four-hour period.
Complex indicator analysis has a variable signal in the short-term and intraday periods due to stagnation. Technical instruments in the medium term give a sell signal due to a downward trend.
