Analysis of Friday's deals:
30M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The GBP/USD pair did not show stable movements on Friday either. The pound managed to rise during the day, and fall, and rise again. Since the UK did not release any macroeconomic reports, and there were only minor reports in America, we conclude that the reason for such movements lies in something else. But what is it? We believe that the market is now in some confusion, but it is less pronounced on the pound than on the euro. Recall that the euro is in a state close to flat, and the pound still maintains an upward trend. This trend is very weak, but still exists. It is quite possible that the euro is now simply "waiting" for the pound to complete its growth. The Bank of England will hold a meeting next week, during which the rate is likely to be raised. This has long been no secret to anyone, so traders can buy the pound now, as if winning back a future rate hike. But when the BoE raises the rate, there will be no reason to continue buying the pair, and then both European currencies may resume falling against the dollar. We continue to believe that the US currency is now the undisputed leader in the foreign exchange market, as the Federal Reserve continues to raise rates very aggressively.
5M chart of the GBP/USD pair
You can clearly see on the 5-minute timeframe how the pair flew from side to side during the last trading day of this week. Let's immediately take note that the levels 1.2245 and 1.2062 are new, which are Friday's high and low, so they did not take part in forming signals. There were plenty of signals themselves, let's analyze them. First, the pair broke the level of 1.2186, forming a buy signal. The level of 1.2216 was also overcome, but after that there was a downward reversal and reverse consolidation below 1.2216. At this moment, long positions should have been closed and short positions should have been opened. Profit was about 10 points. Already within the framework of working out the sell signal, the price overcame the level of 1.2186, and then the level of 1.2106. However, another sharp reversal followed and the pair formed a buy signal around 1.2106. It was necessary to close short positions here and open new longs. Profit on the second deal was about 80 points. The last long also made good money, as the price perfectly reached the target level of 1.2186. Another 50 points in the piggy bank. Thus, the pound/dollar made it possible for novice traders to make excellent money on Friday - about 130-140 points.
How to trade on Monday:
The pound/dollar pair continues to maintain an upward trend on the 30-minute time frame and may continue to grow for several more days. However, we remind you that after the Bank of England meeting, the mood of traders can sharply change to bearish. Consolidating below the trend line will signal a change in trend. On the 5-minute TF tomorrow it is recommended to trade at the levels 1.1967, 1.2033, 1.2062, 1.2106, 1.2186, 1.2216, 1.2245-1.2260, 1.2329-1.2337. When the price passes after opening a deal in the right direction for 20 points, Stop Loss should be set to breakeven. There are no major events or reports scheduled for Monday in the UK and US. Thus, traders will have nothing to pay attention to during the day, but this does not mean that the pair will stand in one place. Nonetheless, it shows a trend movement in recent times.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
