Market participants, analysts, and economists are looking forward to today's US CPI report for July. It is expected that today's report will show a partial decline in headline inflation, including energy and food. It is also assumed that a slight decline will show that inflation against the CPI will be between 8.7% and 8.8%, which is 0.3% below the June CPI, proving that inflation was at a 41-year high of 9.1%.
At the same time, even if the report is in line with economists' forecasts, it will not have a significant impact on the actions of the Federal Reserve at the next FOMC meeting, which will be held from September 20 to 21.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 69.5% chance that the Fed will initiate a third consecutive 75 basis point rate hike and a 30.5% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 50 basis points.
The likelihood of the Fed making a third consecutive 75 basis point rate hike in September has doubled over the past month. On July 8, 2022, the CME FedWatch tool predicted a 31.4% chance of a 3/4% rate hike in September. Just last week, on August 2, the FedWatch tool predicted a 41% chance.
Over the past two trading days, the dollar has slightly decreased.
