Yesterday's mixed closing of the US stock indices raised the question of the completion of the corrective growth of the stock market from the entire movement since June 17, or at least from the movement of the second branch of growth since July 14. The USD/JPY currency pair is now facing a difficult choice - whether to follow the strengthening of the dollar or the decline in the stock market.
If the decline in stock indices is sharp, then the USD/JPY pair will move down, overcome the support of the trend line at 132.18 and head towards the target level of 129.42. If risk appetite prevails, the dollar may reach 136.00 against the yen. We estimate the prospect of a downward scenario with a probability of 55%. The Marlin Oscillator is still growing following the price and does not provide additional information.
The price settled above the MACD indicator line on the H4 chart, the Marlin Oscillator is kept in the negative area, clearly not wanting to leave it. We are waiting for the development of events. A decline below the MACD line, below 132.96, will be the first sign of the price's determination to continue the downward trend.
