The EUR/USD pair is trading in the green at 1.0908 at the time of writing. In the short term, it has turned to the downside as expected. You knew from my previous analysis that the rate could drop after failing to reach the 1.0973 higher high.
Fundamentally, the German Industrial Production rose by 2.0% versus the 0.1% drop estimated. On the other hand, the US Unemployment Claims came in at 228K below 200K expected.
EUR/USD Bullish Bias Intact!
As you can see on the H1 chart, it has failed to stay above the weekly R1 (1.0923) and above 1.0929 signalings that the upwards movement ended.
Now, it was almost to reach the 1.0882 former low which stands as a downside obstacle and target. In the short term, it could test and retest the upper median line (uml) and the R1 (1.0930).
EUR/USD Forecast!
Staying below the upper median line (uml) and making a new lower low activates more declines towards the median line (ml) and down to 1.0816. This is seen as the new selling signal.
