Trading was quite volatile last week because of published economic statistics and minutes of the July Fed meeting. Clearly, the market is dominated by uncertainty, especially since the global economy is at risk of sliding into a full-scale recession and the Fed is likely to ramp up its aggressiveness after a pause in rate hikes in September.
It is likely that before the release of updated data on US GDP for the second quarter, quotes in the forex market will be chaotic, particularly on those that are paired with dollar. Analysts have projected that US GDP will decline by 0.9%, but that could change when inflationary pressure eases.
This is why there is no continued strong growth in dollar. It will only do so when the US economy deteriorates. In this regard, the revised GDP data for the second quarter, as well as the index for personal consumption, will be important. If both indicators show continued negative dynamics, dollar will rise because of demand for it as a safe-haven currency. If GDP is at least zero and not negative, and personal consumption increases, dollar will again be under strong pressure.
Forecasts for today:
USD/JPY
The pair is currently trading at 136.50. Further buying pressure will push the quote to 137.45.
EUR/JPYThe pair is trading below 137.80. Further buying pressure will bring the quote to 139.00.
