The dollar continues to strengthen, and the dollar index (DXY) ends the week with a decent gain. Yesterday DXY decisively broke through the local resistance level of 107.00 and, as of this writing, DXY futures are trading near 107.62, returning to the ascending channel on the daily DXY chart and heading towards the next "round" resistance level of 108.00. Our yesterday's forecast on this matter was justified, and now after the breakdown of the local multi-month high of 109.14, reached in mid-July, the mark of 110.00 will be the next growth target for DXY (the upper limit of this channel passes through it).
Due to the absence of important publications for the market in today's economic calendar, the emerging trend of strengthening the dollar today is likely to continue until the end of the trading day.
Next week, market participants will be watching the Fed's annual economic forum in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, which will bring together representatives of the world's leading central banks and economists. Statements by representatives of central banks may have a significant impact on national currencies. As was the case in previous forums, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at its opening (August 25). Undoubtedly, the main issue for market participants is the topic of tightening monetary policies by the world's leading central banks and their fight against galloping inflation.
In the meantime, the dollar is successfully recovering the positions lost in the previous three weeks, also strengthening against the traditional defensive assets—the yen, the franc, and gold.
As for this precious metal, its quotes are extremely sensitive to changes in the monetary policy of the world's leading central banks, especially the Fed. Gold does not bring investment income but is in active demand during geopolitical and economic uncertainty, and is a protective asset in the face of rising inflation. Now is just such a moment.
However, it seems that it is losing its role as a protective asset to the dollar. XAU/USD pair is falling today for the 5th day in a row, and as of this writing, it is trading near the 1753.00 mark, near the strong support level of 1748.00. In case of its breakdown, the key support level 1690.00 becomes the target, the breakdown of which will cause XAU/USD to enter the zone of a long-term bear market.
