Analysis of Friday's deals:
30M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The GBP/USD pair also continued its downward movement on Friday and has already come close to its 2-year lows. Thus, the technical picture is actually the same as for the euro, with the only difference that the euro is going to renew its 20-year lows, and the pound at 2-year lows. However, this does not change the essence of the matter at all: both pairs continue to fall. There hasn't been enough disappointing information for the pound this week to send it down 300 points. Therefore, we conclude that macroeconomic statistics now, in principle, does not matter much for the market. And the fundamental and geopolitical backgrounds remain in favor of the US dollar. Therefore, from time to time in the medium term, we observe corrections (for example, the last one lasted for several weeks), but then (for no apparent reason) the pair resumes its decline. The UK retail sales report was released on Friday, which turned out to be better than experts predicted, however, as you understand, the pound failed to benefit from it. The price has gone much lower than the descending channel, but it still continues to indicate the continuation of the downward trend.
5M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The pound/dollar pair moved more volatile on the 5-minute timeframe on Friday, but less beautifully. The first two buy signals actually duplicated each other. The price bounced from the 1.1898 level twice, so novice players should have opened long positions. The pound failed to go 20 points up, and then completely consolidated below the level of 1.1898, forming a sell signal. Therefore, a loss of about 20 points was received on a long position. The sell signal should have been worked out with a short position, and it was already much better than the first two. The pair dropped to the target area of 1.1807-1.1827 and rebounded from it. Therefore, shorts should have been closed (the profit was 40-50 points) and new longs should have been opened. This time, the pound was able to go 20 points up, so the deal had to be set to breakeven Stop Loss, at which it was closed. The last signal to sell about consolidating below the level of 1.1807 should no longer be worked out, as it was approaching evening and the market was closing for the weekend.
How to trade on Monday:
The pound/dollar pair has formed a clear downward trend on the 30-minute TF and continues to adhere to it. Therefore, in general, there are no questions about the pair's movement. It will be possible to count on the pound's growth not earlier than consolidating above the descending channel. Macroeconomic statistics were plentiful this week, but had almost no effect on the pair's movement. On the 5-minute TF tomorrow it is recommended to trade at the levels of 1.1898, 1.1967, 1.1994, 1.2079, 1.2141. When the price passes after opening a deal in the right direction for 20 points, Stop Loss should be set to breakeven. There are no major reports or other events scheduled for Monday in the UK and US. Thus, traders will have nothing to react tomorrow, and volatility may decrease. However, the pound can safely continue its fall, as this week has shown that macroeconomic reasons for the fall are not needed.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
