Analysis of Tuesday's deals:
30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD currency pair fell to the level of 0.9900 on Tuesday, after which a sharp upward rebound followed. Moreover, at first glance, it may seem that this rollback was followed by purely technical considerations, since the level of 0.9900 can also be called psychological. However, in fact, the disastrous US service business report had a much larger impact than we thought. This index fell to 44, which is already well below the critical level of 50.0. Therefore, we can certainly say that the service sector is in a serious recession. And this recession could be a harbinger of a recession in the American economy. Therefore, the US dollar fell seriously for the first time in the last two weeks. The fall was at least 100 points. However, the downward trend line continues to be relevant, therefore, we have the right to count on the resumption of the downward movement. Recall that the main reasons for the euro's decline in recent months are not macroeconomic reports. Traders often simply ignore them, so it cannot be said that the dollar is growing because of them. In any case, we believe that the fall of the euro/dollar will continue as long as the price is below the trend line.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
Tuesday's moves do not look the best on the 5-minute time frame, but they were still to be expected, as the US services PMI has fallen too much over the past two months. It should be noted right away that the 0.9900 level is new, who did not take part in the trade today. Therefore, only three trading signals were formed during the day. The first one - a rebound from the level of 0.9952 - should have been worked out with a short position. After its formation, the price went down by about 20 points, but there was not a single target level below, so the deal had to be closed manually in any case. Since Stop Loss was set to breakeven, absolutely no loss was received on this transaction. The next signal - to buy - was formed when the level of 0.9952 was overcome, and it was formed at about the same time as the release of the disappointing report on business activity in the US. Thus, it could be worked out, since the direction of the pair's movement coincided with the nature of the report. The price rose to the level of 1.0000, but rebounded from it, and did not do it very accurately. However, a bounce is a bounce, so the long position should have been closed and a new short position opened. Profit was about 25 points. The last short position had to be closed manually in the late afternoon, and it also brought traders a small profit. Therefore, in general, the day ended well for traders.
How to trade on Wednesday:
The quotes can continue to fall for a long time on the 30-minute timeframe, despite Tuesday's growth. In any case, we now have a descending trend line, so we should focus on it. We believe that most of the factors, fundamental and geopolitical, remain on the US dollar's side, so we expect its further growth in the medium term. Moreover, there is no reason to buy the pair before the price settles above the trend line. On the 5-minute TF on Wednesday, it is recommended to trade at the levels of 0.9900, 0.9952, 1.0000, 1.0072, 1.0123, 1.0156. When passing 15 points in the right direction, you should set Stop Loss to breakeven. No important reports are scheduled in the European Union on Wednesday, and in the US, only a report on orders for durable goods will be released. Theoretically, if the actual value differs from the forecast, the market reaction may follow.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the US one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
