Analysis of Thursday's deals:
30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD currency pair tried to correct again on Thursday, again unsuccessfully. We believe that a 100-point rollback cannot be considered a correction. The descending trend line remains relevant, although there was an attempt to settle above it today. However, one should see the difference between an upward movement with an attempt to overcome the trend line and a sideways movement with a gradual decrease in the trend line. The price failed to overcome even the nearest level of 1.0020 within the framework of the correction. Thus, it continues to be below price parity and continues to have chances for further decline. There was not a single important event in the European Union on Thursday, and the US GDP for the second quarter was published in the third assessment. It amounted to -0.6%, although forecasts predicted a fall of 0.8-0.9%. Thus, the US dollar's strengthening in the afternoon can even be considered a market reaction to the GDP report. But we continue to adhere to the opinion that macroeconomic statistics have practically no effect on the pair's movement. You can even say that the dollar's fall by 100 points on Tuesday after the release of the index of business activity in the services sector is an exception to the rule.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
Thursday's movements on the 5-minute timeframe do not look the best. But it is at least clear why. The pair has been inside the 0.9900-1.0020 horizontal channel for the past few days, so, in fact, we have a flat. Looking at the 5-minute timeframe, the fact that all trading signals were formed around the same level of 1.0000, which was recognized as irrelevant at the end of the day, immediately catches the eye. Levels 1.0020, 1.0034 are new. During the day, the price could not reach the nearest target level after any of the signals. Only the fourth sell signal can be considered more or less strong, as the price managed to go down at least 35 points. The volatility of the day was 80 points, which is not so little, but the trading signals were extremely weak. Novice players could work out only the first two of them, and it was not even possible to set Stop Loss to breakeven for each of them. Unfortunately, these are the realities of trading inside the flat.
How to trade on Friday:
Quotes may resume to fall on the 30-minute timeframe, as the pair failed to settle above the trend line and the new level of 1.0020. Most of the factors remain in favor of the US dollar, and there are few macroeconomic statistics planned for this week. However, overcoming the trend line may allow the euro to rise by another 50-100 points. On the 5-minute TF on Friday it is recommended to trade at the levels 0.9900-0.9910, 0.9952, 1.0020-1.0034, 1.0072, 1.0123, 1.0156. When passing 15 points in the right direction, you should set Stop Loss to breakeven. No important reports are planned in the European Union, and secondary data on personal income and expenses of the American population will be released in the US. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak in the evening, which is, of course, the most important event of the week. But it will take place at a time when traders will have to start exiting all trades and preparing for the weekend.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the US one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
