Analysis of Tuesday's deals:
30M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The GBP/USD pair once again updated its 2-year lows on Tuesday. We have already said that right now the pound continues to fall while the euro is in a flat. And since the pound continues its downward trend (downward channel), it is not surprising that it continues to move to the downside. The pound was still trying to correct slightly during the European trading session, but new short positions followed during the US session, which have already led to the fact that the pair came close to the level of 1.1600, from which only 200 points remain to 35-year lows... We have little doubt that the pound will renew these lows as well. As for the fundamental and macroeconomic background, there were none on Tuesday. There are no major events planned for this week in the UK, and the next important report in the US is Nonfarm set for release on Friday. However, traders are very clearly and diligently following the downward trend and do not understand why buy the pound now if everyone is selling it? Thus, the British currency may continue to fall, and the euro will then catch up with the pound.
5M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The pound/dollar pair showed movements much better than the euro/dollar pair on the 5-minute timeframe. There was a clear upward movement in the morning, and a clear downward movement in the afternoon. Not without false signals, of course, but this is a side effect. The first buy signal was formed near the level of 1.1716. After it was formed, the price rose to the level of 1.1755, from which it rebounded perfectly. However, the profit on this trade was minimal, only 5 points, since the candles on which both signals were formed were very long and "ate" the profit. The sell signal near the level of 1.1755 also had to be worked out, and the price returned to 1.1716, which made it possible to earn about 5 more points. The bounce off 1.1716 turned out to be false and the trade closed at a loss of 23 points as the price settled below 1.1716. But the same sell signal allowed traders to offset the loss and earn. After its formation, the pair failed to go down 20 points on the first attempt and returned to 1.1716. Another bounce followed and all this time the newcomers had to keep short positions open. This was followed by a powerful fall with consolidation below 1.1648. Reverse consolidation above 1.1648 or manual closing of the position made it possible to earn 50 points of profit. As a result, the day ended with a profit of 35-40 points.
How to trade on Wednesday:
The pound/dollar pair continues to follow a downward trend on the 30-minute TF. The 1.1648 level was easily overcome, so the pound can safely continue its fall. Reasons for the fall should be technical. On the 5-minute time frame on Wednesday, it is recommended to trade at the levels (Tuesday low), 1.1648, 1.1716, 1.1755, 1.1793, 1.1863-1.1877, 1.1967. When the price passes after opening a deal in the right direction for 20 points, Stop Loss should be set to breakeven. There are no major events scheduled for Wednesday in the UK. Only a minor ADP report will be released in America, which will herald a change in the number of employees in the private sector. This report is the "younger brother" of the Nonfarm and there is rarely a market reaction to it.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the US one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
