Bitcoin has entered September, a month which historically has been troublesome for BTC, by confirming $20,700 as its resistance level. The leading cryptocurrency is continuing to slide down amid bearish pressure and overall pessimism in the market.
In this situation, BTC could hit its July lows. However, historical data suggests Bitcoin could likely enter a period of inactivity.
Bitcoin: getting ready for a tough month
Bitcoin has often performed poorly in September. Since 2017, BTC has averaged an 8.5% drop for the month.
Nevertheless, crypto analysts believer that this year could be different. The fundamental factors and network activity have improved amid adoption due to price drop.
The price of the leading cryptocurrency remains in a lenghty period of inactivity. Low percentage of fees in total block reward means activity in the Bitcoin network is also low.
Historically, every time when the percentage of fees in total block reward falls below 3%, bears push BTC into oversold territory. This bearish cycle generally ends when the metric jumps above 3%.
Traders should wait until the percentage of fees in the total block reward jumps over 3%. It will indicate growing demand in the network, which could indicate potential market strength.
Network demand currently remains low, and a new bullish cycle is still far away. Investors should wait for the bearish rally to end until the market sends a clear bullish signal.
Furthermore, the hawkish position of Fed chairman Jerome Powell and sell-offs of dormant whale accounts suggest Bitcoin could slide down even further.
BTC growth expected to resume quickly
Many crypto analysts now expect BTC price to fall below $19,000, reaching the lows of July or even June. However, some see good long-term prospects for Bitcoin.
Sam Bankman-Fried, a cryptocurrency billionaire, believes that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could rally soon.
Bankman-Fried told Bloomberg that he was not nervous when BTC fell below $30,000 in May. BTC's drop below $20,000 was triggered by a speech by Fed chairman Jerome Powell on monetary policy. Powell said that the US central bank would stick to its hawkish policy course for longer than previously anticipated.
When asked if the cryptocurrency will return to growth, Bankman-Fried said yes. According to the crypto billionaire, the crash of Bitcoin and the stock market was largely influenced by the macroeconomic environment.
Like many other analysts, Sam Bankman-Fried believes that the crypto market crash followed a similar crash in the stock market. Consequently, if equities recover, cryptocurrencies will rally as well.
"Weak hands" abandon crypto
When Bitcoin began to plunge in May, Bankman-Fried predicted a difficult period for the market. Many crypto companies went bankrupt due to a sharp drop in crypto prices. Sam Bankman-Fried spent about $1 billion on bailing out crypto platforms. However, in a recent interview, he admitted that he expects most of these investments not to produce significant returns.
The founder of FTX added that the crash has cleaned the market of many things that needed to be removed. Therefore, the ongoing crisis would be a short-term downturn which would not pose long-term problems.
"If we saw things melt down much further than they did, if we saw NASDAQ drop 30%, 40% from here and Bitcoin go down to $10,000 per token, I think you would see another round of pain for the industry that would potentially be more of a medium- to long-term problem," Bankman-Fried said.
A promising sign
Some experts interviewed by Bloomberg believe that Bitcoin has possibly already bottomed out. BTC dropped by 6% following Jerome Powell's speech in Jackson Hole on August 26.
In these bearish conditions, the drop of BTC was relatively moderate. During earlier downturns, cryptocurrencies dropped much more strongly than tech stocks.
Now, the relative resilience of Bitcoin is a promising sign, analysts say.
Currently, the leading cryptocurrency has dived by 70.81% from its all-time high of November 2021. The price is currently near the first key high of December 2017. Unless Bitcoin breaks below this level, it is more likely to recover than nosedive.
