Analysis of Thursday's deals:
30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD currency pair continued incomprehensible movements inside the wide 0.9900-1.0072 horizontal channel for most of the day. However, a new collapse followed in the US trading session. The pair's quotes have lost about 100 points in just a few hours, but still remain inside the horizontal channel. Earlier, we said that the development and rebound from the upper limit of this channel could provoke a fall to the lower limit, that is, to the level of 0.9900. So far, everything is moving towards that. If the level of 0.9900 is overcome, then the downward trend will resume, and the pair will again update its 20-year lows. Almost following the tradition of this week, we would like to write that there was no macroeconomic background on Thursday. However, this is still not the case. The European Union published a report on unemployment, and the US released the ISM index for the service sector. However, neither the first nor the second reports provoked any market reaction. If only because their values did not differ at all from the values of the previous month and corresponded to the forecasts as closely as possible. It can hardly be said that the ISM index provoked the dollar's growth, if its value, as it was 52.8, remained at 52.8. Thus, the market itself, out of the blue, decided to sell the euro in the afternoon.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The entire European session saw a sideways movement on the 5-minute timeframe. A strong fall only began in the US session. Two signals were formed near the area of 1.0020-1.0034. The first one is false, as there was a consolidation above the level of 1.0034, but there was no upward movement. Therefore, this trade resulted in a loss of 34 points. On the other hand, the second sell signal turned out to be correct, and at the moment the pair, after its formation, has already gone down 66 points, breaking the level of 0.9952 along the way. Therefore, a short position can be closed now, or you can set a Stop Loss above the level of 0.9952, counting on the euro's further fall, which cannot be ruled out at all. It is no longer worth working out any new signals today, as they will form late. The 0.9910-0.9900 area is a strong area, a rebound may follow from it, which will keep the flat on the hourly timeframe.
How to trade on Friday:
The pair continues to trade inside the 0.9900-1.0072 horizontal channel on the 30-minute timeframe. Thus, before overcoming any of the channel boundaries, a flat can be observed. It has always been very difficult to trade inside the flat, but from time to time good movements happen and good signals are formed. On the 5-minute TF on Friday, it is recommended to trade at the levels of 0.9900-0.9910, 0.9952, 1.0020-1.0034, 1.0072. When passing 15 points in the right direction, you should set Stop Loss to breakeven. No important events scheduled for Friday in the European Union, but the most important reports on unemployment and NonFarm Payrolls will be published in the US. This data may provoke a strong market reaction, which may allow the pair to leave the horizontal channel. Thus, one should keep a close eye on these reports and be prepared for a strong move.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the US one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
