Analysis of Monday's deals:
30M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The GBP/USD pair continued its downward movement on Monday morning and once again updated its 2-year lows. The chart below clearly shows that there were about 50 points left to go to the 37-year lows. That is, they are already very close, and we do not believe that the pair will suddenly turn up for no reason and start forming a new upward trend. The price is still well below the descending channel, which only indicates the strength of the downward movement. Traders still do not pay almost any attention to macroeconomic statistics, and it was not there on Monday. The calendar of events was completely empty in the US, meanwhile, one more or less significant index of business activity in the services sector in the second assessment for August came out in the UK. Naturally, it did not have any influence on the course of the trade. Thus, there are no obstacles for the pound to continue falling now. If the euro will have a European Central Bank meeting this week, which may affect the mood of the market, then the pound will have practically no important events and reports this week.
5M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The pound/dollar pair continues to move pretty well on the 5-minute timeframe, but the problem is still the same: there are very few levels around the current price values at which trading signals could form. For example, in fact, only one level could be expected on Monday - 1.1498. The 1.1443 level is today's low and did not take part in the trading. An intraday flat began near the level of 1.1498, so all the signals turned out to be false. So it turns out that there is a trend movement, but it is extremely difficult to work it out on lower timeframes, since signals are practically not formed. All three trading signals turned out to be false today, as mentioned above, but beginners could work out only the first two. In both cases, even 20 points were not passed in the right direction, so Stop Loss could not be set to breakeven. Consequently, a small loss was received on both trades. It will be easier to trade when there are more levels.
How to trade on Tuesday:
The pound/dollar pair continues to follow a downward trend on the 30-minute TF. The price has already come close to its low for 37 years, so in the near future you can count on its development and breakthrough. The pound is falling even without local macroeconomic statistics or foundation. Such a movement is extremely difficult to predict. It can end at any moment, but for now we believe that it will continue. On the 5-minute TF on Tuesday it is recommended to trade at the levels of 1.1411, 1.1498, 1.1601, 1.1620, 1.1648. When the price passes after opening a deal in the right direction for 20 points, Stop Loss should be set to breakeven. The UK is set to publish an index of business activity in the construction sector, meanwhile, there is absolutely nothing in the US. Thus, there will be no impact on the course of trading from macroeconomics. As we can see on Monday, this does not prevent the pair from continuing to update its lows and move down.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the US one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
