Analysis of Wednesday's deals:
30M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The GBP/USD pair once again resumed its downward movement on Wednesday and repeated the anti-record 37 years ago. The price fell to the level of 1.1411 during the day, which we talked about working out a few weeks ago. The downward trend continues, and the price continues to settle below the descending channel. Thus, after a rebound from the level of 1.1411, the pair may correct and then resume its fall. We do not believe that the level of 1.1411 will not be overcome. But also, as in the case of the euro, one should be extremely careful with new short positions, since the price is already very low and in fact the trend can end at any second. If the level of 1.1411 is overcome, this will enable the British currency to fall in price by another 300-400 points. There was no important event in the US, and we had Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey's speech in the UK. However, the pound would still fall even if the calendar was empty. Is anyone surprised now by the pound's daily fall? There will be no more macroeconomic statistics and foundation for the last two days of the week, but this does not mean that the pair will stand still for these two days.
5M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The pound/dollar pair was moving quite trendy on the 5-minute timeframe, but at the same time it changed direction twice during the day, which is not good. The first buy signal was formed when consolidating above the level of 1.1498, and it turned out to be false. However, it should have been filtered out, since Bailey's speech was supposed to start literally in a second, so the market reaction could be anything. Even if the trade was opened, there was enough time to close it at a minimal loss. The next sell signal was formed when Bailey's speech had already begun and it became clear that he would not announce anything optimistic. The pound resumed its fall and this signal could be worked out. The pair subsequently overcame the level of 1.1443 and completed the level of 1.1411, from which it rebounded twice with a minimum error. One should have closed shorts on these rebounds. Profit amounted to at least 55 points. The following signals to buy and sell could also be worked out, but the price turned out to be clamped between the levels of 1.1411 and 1.1443 for a short period, so it was not possible to make a big profit. The last three buy signals could have been worked out, but they formed rather late. In any case, the day ended in profit.
How to trade on Thursday:
The pound/dollar pair continues to follow a downward trend on the 30-minute TF. The price has already fallen to its low for 37 years, so in the near future we can count on its breakthrough. The descending channel also remains relevant on the 30-minute TF, and the price continues to settle even below it, so there are no technical grounds for the pound's growth right now. On the 5-minute TF, it is recommended to trade at the levels of 1.1411, 1.1443, 1.1498, 1.1601. When the price passes after opening a deal in the right direction for 20 points, Stop Loss should be set to breakeven. There are no major reports or other events scheduled for Thursday in either the UK or the US. However, the market does not require macroeconomics now. The pound goes down according to plan and is likely to continue its decline.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the US one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
