For the pound/dollar instrument, the wave marking looks quite complicated at the moment but still does not require any clarification. The upward wave, built between May 13 and May 27, does not fit into the overall wave picture, but it can still be considered corrective as part of the downward trend section. Thus, it can now be concluded that the downward section of the trend continues its construction. We have completed waves a, b, c and d, so we can assume that the instrument is inside wave e. If this is indeed the case, the quotes' decline may continue. However, I remind you that if impulse structures can become more complicated and lengthened, corrective ones can become even more so. Given the news background and the fact that the Fed will not stop raising interest rates now, the entire downward trend section may take a much longer form. A successful attempt to break through the 1,1708 mark, which corresponds to 161.8% Fibonacci, indicates that the market is ready for new sales of the British. At the same time, the low of wave e is already much lower than the low of wave c, so wave e can end at any time. The wave markings of the euro and the pound are again very similar.
Bad news from the UK.
The exchange rate of the pound/dollar instrument decreased by another 30 basis points on September 8. At the time of writing, the quotes of the British have not updated the low again for almost 40 years, but given the proximity of these marks, I do not doubt that we will still see the value of the pound below the 14th figure. The news background was quite weak today. Around this time, the speech of Fed President Jerome Powell should take place, but there is no information on this yet. But there is bad news from Britain, or rather from Balmoral Castle.
Let me remind you that Liz Truss was inaugurated yesterday as the new Prime Minister. According to British customs, Elizabeth II should appoint the head of government, which is mandatory at Buckingham Palace. However, for the first time during her reign, Elizabeth II could not come to Buckingham, so the appointment of Liz Truss took place at Balmoral Castle, where the Queen of Great Britain now resides. Today it became known about the deterioration of the Queen's health. Doctors recommend that she stay under constant supervision and rest more. After all, the Queen is already 96 years old. Elizabeth II's close relatives were urgently summoned to Scotland. Doctors talk about the deterioration of health but state the stable condition of the Queen. Newly minted Prime Minister Liz Truss has already stated that the whole country is thinking of Elizabeth II. Let's hope that everything will work out. Well, the Briton has nothing else to do this week. There should be no news in Britain or the US on Friday. Maybe there will still be information from Jerome Powell, but this information must be important to influence the market's mood.
General conclusions.
The wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument suggests a continued decline in demand for the pound. I advise now selling the instrument with targets near the estimated mark of 1.1112, equivalent to 200.0% Fibonacci, for each MACD signal "down," but this mark is quite far away, so the instrument may not reach it. Inside the fifth wave, you must sell more carefully since the downward trend section can end anytime.
The picture is similar to the euro/dollar instrument at the higher wave scale. The same ascending wave does not fit the current wave pattern, the same five waves down after it. Thus, one thing is unambiguous – the downward section of the trend continues its construction and can turn out to be almost any length.
