On the 4-hour TF, it is visible that the level of $ 24,350 bitcoin has not been able to overcome and subsequently gained a foothold below the ascending channel. Thus, the trend has changed to a downward one, but recall that on the 24-hour TF, there was a flat between $ 18,500 and $ 24,350. Thus, a new round of growth may now follow as quotes bounce off the channel's lower border. It is difficult to say whether bitcoin has reached its "bottom" this summer, but the fundamental background and the technical picture suggest that it has not. Recall that strong and long-term trends usually end with a sharp departure of quotes in the opposite direction. With such an impulse, a new trend begins. Bitcoin has been "trampling" around its annual lows for three months now. Therefore, we are still inclined to the option of overcoming the $18,500 level sooner or later and further falling.
Meanwhile, Pantera Capital director Dan Morehead said that bitcoin will soon grow again and will increase in price by 2.5 times over the next year. According to Morehead, the "cryptocurrency winter" is ending, and the lows this summer are the "bottom" of the market. He will recall that strong ups and downs are normal for cryptocurrencies, and a new "bullish" trend begins after any strong drop. We agree with Morehead's opinion, as the long-term prospects for bitcoin remain quite attractive. We only disagree with the timing. As the Fed and other central banks continue to raise their rates and the end of this process is not yet in sight, we believe that risky assets will continue to fall. "The market has gone through three big cycles of decline. I think we reached a low in June, and now the market is preparing to rise. It may take some time, but we are at an upward stage," Morehead said. He also noted that bitcoin and ether are not the only cryptocurrencies in the world, and investors are slowly starting to pay attention to other "digital assets." The days when Bitcoin completely dominated the cryptocurrency market have already passed. The bitcoin dominance index is now around 38%. In any case, we do not recommend purchases until technical buy signals appear. And there are none yet on the 24-hour TF, nor the 4-hour one.
In the 4-hour timeframe, the quotes of "bitcoin" apparently completed an upward correction. We believe that the decline will now continue in the medium term. The first target for sales is currently $ 17,582, but there is also an important level slightly higher – $ 18,500. It is required to overcome it so that bitcoin can continue its decline. So far, we have a rebound from this level, so short-term growth is possible.
