Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair
Euro tested 0.9985 at the time when the MACD was far from zero, which limited the downside potential of the pair. Sometime later, it tested the level again, but this time the market signal that was to buy, which led to a price increase of around 40 pips. In the afternoon, another buy signal was formed at 0.9941, and this also resulted to a rise of more than 40 pips.
The ECB's decision to raise rates by 0.75% led to a slight decrease in euro because markets already expected that outcome. But after Christine Lagarde said another increase is possible in October, demand rose, which led to the rise of EUR/USD. US data on jobless claims and speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell were ignored by markets.
A number of reports are scheduled to be released today, including the change in the volume of industrial production in France. There will also be another speech from ECB President Christine Lagarde, which may add optimism in markets. The EU economic summit and Eurogroup meeting may also have a positive impact on euro, especially if decisions are made to support the population and pay off their energy debts. In the afternoon, there are no important statistics in the US, except for changes in the volume of stocks in wholesale warehouses. There will be presentations from FOMC members Charles Evans, Christopher Waller and Esther George, but all of them are likely to talk about further increases in interest rates.
For long positions:
Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.0078 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0135. Growth may continue today as the ECB raised interest rates by 0.75%.
Take note that when buying, the MACD line should be above zero or is starting to rise from it. Euro can also be bought at 1.0042, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0078 and 1.0135.
For short positions:
Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.0042 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 0.9998. Pressure will return if the Fed remains hawkish on its monetary policy.
Take note that when selling, the MACD line should be below zero or is starting to move down from it. Euro can also be sold at 1.0078, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0042 and 0.9998.
What's on the chart:
The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.
The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.
MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
