During the current week, everything went according to plan. On Thursday, fairly strong growth began, and by the current moment, the number one cryptocurrency in the world has managed to grow to $ 21,573 per coin. After leaving the ascending channel, which is more correctly considered sideways, we expected a more serious drop in cryptocurrency. Nevertheless, the rebound from the level of $ 18,500 provoked a new round of upward movement, and we should draw the attention of traders to the fact that the quotes of the "bitcoin" have been trading in a side channel between the levels of $ 18,500 and $24,350 for three months. We now have a flat at our disposal, perfectly visible in the illustration below. Thus, bitcoin must leave this side channel, and only then will it be possible to talk about which way and how much it will move in the near future. It should also be noted that the downward trend line is still relevant, so the global downward trend persists. Unfortunately, if the price "meets" this trend line, it may overcome it. But we remind you that such an overcoming will not be considered a signal to buy since bitcoin is now flat. In general, we expect the cryptocurrency to fall and believe it is quite capable of falling to the level of $ 12,426 in 2022.
The fundamental background for the "bitcoin" remains quite complex. The most important factor in the fall now is the monetary policies of the world's central banks, especially the largest: the ECB, the Bank of England, and the Fed. All three banks continue to raise their rates, struggling with high inflation, and we do not see the completion of this process in the foreseeable future. And raising rates is always bad for risky assets and investments. The profitability of safe assets is increasing, so investors prefer to deal with them rather than with cryptocurrencies or stocks.
As you can see, even now, when bitcoin has lost about 70% of its value, market participants are in no hurry to buy it, although the current levels compared to the end of last year are very attractive. Therefore, we believe that the decline of the "bitcoin" will continue. Until the end of 2022, there are all the necessary grounds for this.
On the 24-hour timeframe, the quotes of the "bitcoin" could not overcome the $ 24,350 but also failed to overcome the $18,500 (127.2% Fibonacci). Thus, so far, we have a side channel, and it is unknown how much time bitcoin will spend in it. We recommend not to rush to open positions and withdrawals. It is much better to wait for the price to exit this channel and only then open the corresponding transactions. Overcoming the $18,500 level will open the way to the $12,426 level.
