FX.co ★ GBP/USD: plan for the US session on September 15 (analysis of morning deals). The pressure on the pound remains

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.1495 and recommended deciding on entering the market. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened. The bears did not delay the attack and actively failed the pound in the nearest support area of 1.1495, where I advised them to open long positions. At the time of writing, the signal continues to operate. However, the longer the GBP/USD growth is not active, the higher the probability of a new decline in the pair will be. From a technical point of view, I changed something for the afternoon.

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

I think the further direction will depend entirely on the American responses. The focus is on the change in the volume of retail trade in the United States for August of this year. Suppose the indicator turns out to be better than economists' forecasts. In that case, the GBP/USD pair will fall to the next weekly highs, preserving concerns about the growth of inflationary pressure in the country. Reports on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits, the Fed-Philadelphia manufacturing index, and the Empire Manufacturing index will be of secondary importance. In the case of pressure on the pair, the bulls will try to offer something in the area of 1.1482. I advise you to open long positions from there only when forming a false breakdown by analogy with what I discussed above. After that, it will be possible to count on a resumption of growth and an update of the maximum of 1.1532, in which moving averages are playing on the sellers' side, which will clearly limit the upward potential. A breakdown and a reverse test from the top down of this range against the background of weak retail sales data and a drop in production activity indices will help strengthen customer confidence, opening the way to 1.1585. A more distant goal will be a maximum of 1.1631, where I recommend fixing the profits. If GBP/USD falls and there are no buyers at 1.1482, the pressure on the pair will return, as this will pull the bulls' stop orders and return the downtrend to the market. Below 1.1482, only the 1.1446 area is viewed. I recommend opening long positions there only when a false breakdown is formed. You can buy GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from 1.1406 or even lower - from 1.1358 to correct 30-35 points within a day.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The fall of the pound will depend entirely on the US data. And although the bears failed to break below the 1.1482 minimum on the third attempt in two days, as long as trading is below 1.1532, sellers will have a good chance of further downward movement. An important task remains to protect the new resistance of 1.1532, having missed which buyers can cheer up and start acting more actively. The optimal scenario for selling will be a false breakout from the level of 1.1532, which will surely dump GBP/USD in the area of the nearest support of 1.1482. A breakout and a reverse test from the bottom up of this range will lead to an excellent additional sell signal to collapse to 1.1446, where I recommend fixing the profits. A more distant target will be the 1.1406 area. With the option of GBP/USD growth and the absence of bears at 1.1532, the bulls will have a chance to develop a further upward correction. In this case, I advise you not to rush with sales: only a false breakdown near the maximum of 1.1585 forms a sell signal. It is possible to sell GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from the level of 1.1631 or even higher – around 1.1679 to move down by 30-35 points within a day.

The COT report (Commitment of Traders) for September 6 recorded an increase in short positions and a reduction in long ones. This once again confirms that the British pound is in a major downward peak, from which it is not as easy to get out as it might seem. Last week, the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, made a speech, who tried his best to instill confidence that the regulator would continue to follow the path of defeating inflation and raising interest rates aggressively. This suggests that, at its next meeting, the committee will raise rates by 0.75% at once, following the example of other Central Banks. However, things are getting worse and worse in the British economy, and GDP is shrinking quite quickly, as evidenced by recent reports, which do not give confidence to investors. Given the high level of inflation and the escalating crisis of the cost of living in the UK, it will be quite difficult for bulls to get space for a set of long positions since nothing good is expected from the statistics ahead. The latest COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions decreased by 5,746 to 52,731. In contrast, short non-commercial positions increased by 15,516 to 103,163, which led to an increase in the negative value of the non-commercial net position to the level of -50,423 versus -29,170. The weekly closing price collapsed from 1.1526 to 1.1661.

Signals of indicators:

Moving Averages

Trading is conducted below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating the likelihood of the pair's further fall.

Note: The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

In case of a decline, the lower limit of the indicator, around 1.1511, will act as support.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence/divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions use the futures market for speculative purposes and to meet certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.