Analysis of Tuesday's deals:
30M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The GBP/USD pair did not show much desire to move on Tuesday either. If the Fed meeting looms before the euro, then the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England meetings loom before the pound. Thus, the market rightly decided that for now it is possible to do without updating the 37-year lows for a couple of days and just calmly wait for both meetings. Thus, the pair is now also trading in the horizontal channel, which is limited by the levels of 1.1356 and 1.1479. The descending trend line that we formed on Monday has been overcome, but, as we warned, it was of a formal nature and its breakthrough definitely does not mean that now the pound will grow. Whether the pound will grow or not in the coming days will be determined by the market itself after it gets acquainted with the results of the meetings of the central banks of Great Britain and the United States. Overall, we expect the decline to continue as the BoE is likely to raise rates by 0.5% and the Fed by 0.75%. This moment may well provoke a new round of short positions on the British currency.
5M chart of the GBP/USD pair
Things were pretty bad in regards to Tuesday's trading signals on the 5-minute timeframe, but still there weren't a lot of false signals. The pair was trading exclusively sideways for most of the day, so the signals were formed around two levels, one of which (1.1411) was recognized as irrelevant at the end of the day. The first buy signal - a rebound from the level of 1.1411 - was not bad, it should have been worked out, and the long position should have been closed when the price consolidated below the level of 1.1443. Profit was about 10 points. Short positions should have been opened on this signal, and the price subsequently dropped back to the level of 1.1411 and rebounded from it again. Another 10 points profit. A new long position generated another 10 points as the price rebounded to 1.1443, from which there was a rebound. Therefore, longs should have been closed and new shorts opened. This time, the pair has already managed to overcome the level of 1.1411, and the deal should have been closed manually in the late afternoon. Profit on it amounted to 30 points. Thus, in the absolute flat we managed to earn about 60 points, with which we congratulate beginners.
How to trade on Wednesday:
The pound/dollar pair continues to fall on the 30-minute TF, which is visible even without a trend line. So far, the market has taken a break for a couple of days, but there is no doubt that Wednesday and Thursday will be very volatile trading. Therefore, we may well "catch" the pair on Friday at a distance of 200-300 points above or below the current levels. On the 5-minute TF on Wednesday it is recommended to trade at the levels of 1.1356, 1.1443, 1.1479, 1.1550, 1.1608. When the price passes after opening a deal in the right direction for 20 points, Stop Loss should be set to breakeven. There are no major events scheduled for Wednesday in the UK. But in America, the results of the US central bank meeting, the decision on the rate will be announced, economic forecasts will be presented and a press conference with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will be held. All this is scheduled for the late evening, so newcomers will have time to leave the market before these events.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the US one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
