Last night, Bitcoin managed to stay above the $18,500 level. It can be seen that this level is important and strong for traders, as it is impossible to gain a foothold below it. But five attempts have already been made. Last night, a new round of cryptocurrency decline began, but it ended very quickly, as the price was at a minimum distance from $ 18,500. At the same time, the US stock market was actively falling, working out the results of the Fed meeting, and the US dollar was actively growing against its competitors. That is, it turns out that Bitcoin ignored the results of the meeting and Powell's speech, although he had plenty of reasons for a new fall. Nevertheless, we are still waiting for the $18,500 level to be overcome and the "digital gold" to fall further.
Last night, the Fed's key rate rose by another 0.75%. In principle, this did not come as a surprise to anyone because, in recent weeks, the market has considered this option the main one. Jerome Powell's rhetoric also turned out to be quite predictable. In particular, he assured us that the fight against high inflation continues, and the regulator has to take several more powerful steps forward. The median forecast for the rate rose to 4.4% by the end of this year, but even this cannot be called a surprise because James Bullard said a few months ago that the rate would have to be raised higher than planned at the beginning of the year. And at the beginning of the year, it was about 3.5%. This is still a negative fundamental background for all risky assets, including bitcoin. At a press conference, Jerome Powell also said that the period of high rates would remain longer than planned, and in 2023 the possibility of lowering the key rate is not yet being considered. This means that the period of restrictive monetary policy will be delayed for at least one year. Recall that we expect to see the end of the upward trend in the dollar and the downward trend in US stock indices and cryptocurrencies when the Fed at least stops raising interest rates. That is, at the beginning of 2023. However, until the regulator begins to soften monetary policy, it is unlikely to count on strong asset growth and a dollar fall.
In the 24-hour timeframe, the "bitcoin" quotes could not overcome the $ 24,350, but they could not yet overcome the $18,500 (127.2% Fibonacci). Thus, we have a side channel, and it is unknown how much time Bitcoin will spend on it. We recommend not rushing to open positions. It is much better to wait for the price to exit this channel and only then open the corresponding transactions. Overcoming the $18,500 level will take you to the $12,426 level. You can also use rebound signals (from the trend line or the upper or lower border of the channel).
