Analysis of Tuesday's deals:
30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD currency pair has already "slowed down" on Tuesday and began to trade more measuredly. A downward trend supported by a descending channel remains relevant, so none of the beginners should be misled by the rollback that occurred on Monday. Although, by and large, there was no rollback. The price has only slightly moved away from its next "new" lows for 20 years. If earlier we said that the pair cannot fall all the time and should correct at least from time to time, now it is time to say that the pair should roll back from its new lows at least from time to time. Because right now there are no real corrections. Accordingly, a one-day respite from the fall does not at all mean that the downward trend is over. What is short term, what is long term. We advise you to consider buying but not before the price settles above the descending channel, but even in this case it can be quite dangerous. The geopolitical and fundamental backgrounds now remain such that they support only the dollar. And those news that could hypothetically support the euro are not even taken into account by the market.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
There were no trading signals on the 5-minute timeframe on Tuesday. For the second day in a row, novice traders have nothing to work out for the euro/dollar pair. Volatility was only 70 points, and the price did not even come close to any of the nearest levels. There are still very few levels in the current price area. For example, there is almost 160 points between the two nearest levels 0.9554 and 0.9709. The euro/dollar pair is far from being able to cover such a distance at least in one direction everyday, not to mention two. Therefore, there may be very few signals in the coming days, although new levels will appear from time to time.
How to trade on Wednesday:
The downward movement actually continues on the 30-minute timeframe. The market paid no attention to European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's hawkish statements either on Monday or Tuesday. Therefore, it is still very, very difficult to count on the euro's growth. It is even difficult for us now to guess on the basis of what the majority of market participants can make a decision at the beginning of an upward trend. Most likely, the euro will continue to fall. On the 5-minute TF on Wednesday, it is recommended to trade at the levels of 0.9554, 0.9709, 0.9813, 0.9877, 0.9910. When passing 15 points in the right direction, you should set Stop Loss to breakeven. Lagarde will deliver another speech on Wednesday. Since the market took great pleasure in ignoring her speech on Monday and Tuesday, we don't think there will be a reaction on Wednesday. Or that Lagarde herself will be able to surprise the market with something.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the US one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
