Bitcoin has finally stopped moving in the last two weeks, which is seen in the illustration of the 24-hour TF attached below. If earlier the cryptocurrency at least moved a significant distance from the $ 18,500 level, now it is trading exclusively along it. The price is stuck between the critical line and the $18,500 level. And in addition to the $18,500 level and the Kijun-sen line, we also have a descending trend line, the $24,350 level, and a descending channel on the 4-hour TF. As you can see, there are a lot of landmarks, even too many. Some of them will soon become irrelevant. In particular, in the coming days, either a side channel or a descending trend line may be canceled. Each of the options has its nuances. In the first case, the price will overcome the trend line but remain inside the side channel. Such a signal cannot be interpreted as a buy signal since overcoming the trend line will not be sharp and confident. It will simply be canceled, and the side channel will remain relevant. In the second case, bitcoin will resume its downward trend and rush to the level of $ 12,426. This is the option we are counting on.
This week, the fundamental background was quite extensive, but it did not significantly affect the market's mood. There were several speeches by representatives of the Fed, each of whom assured that the key rate would continue to rise, and several speeches by Christine Lagarde, who also promised that the ECB rate would increase. In the first and second cases, we are talking about rather large steps of increase at the next meetings. Thus, interest rates will continue to rise, which is terrible for bitcoin and all other risky assets. It seems that the market is just waiting for the "trigger pull," after which a new powerful collapse will follow. If any major player sells his coins at once, the rest of the "whales" will follow him, and the "hamsters" will join. However, before overcoming $ 18,500, it is not worth rushing into sales since it is impossible to exclude the option with a round of upward movement completely. No matter the technical and fundamental picture, we must not forget that the entire bitcoin market is $ 0.37 trillion. It is much easier to manipulate such a market than a currency one.
In the 24-hour timeframe, the "bitcoin" quotes could not overcome the $ 24,350, but they could not yet overcome the $18,500 (127.2% Fibonacci). Thus, we have a side channel, and it is unknown how much time Bitcoin will spend on it. We recommend not rushing to open positions. It is much better to wait for the price to exit this channel and only then open the corresponding transactions. Overcoming the $18,500 level will open the way to the $12,426 level.
