The last trading week of September, which turned out to be extremely volatile, is over. The Bank of England's decision to make temporary purchases of UK government bonds with long maturities "to restore orderly market conditions" caused a sharp rise in prices for government bonds of the main economically developed countries of the world, including US government bonds.
Last Wednesday, the BoE announced that it had purchased bonds worth 1.025 billion pounds. "Subsequent auctions will be held every working day from 13:15 to 14:45 (GMT) until October 14." As a result of the BoE's bond-buying intervention on Wednesday, the yields of European and US government bonds fell sharply. Thus, the yield on 10-year US bonds fell on Wednesday from 4.01% to 3.73%, rolling back from multi-year highs by 7.5%. The fall in government bond yields and the weakening of the dollar continued on Thursday. The DXY dollar index lost more than 1% in just one day, dropping from the previously reached new local 20-year high of 114.74 to 112.50.
And so, on Friday, the DXY sank to 111.53. Despite this, September turned out to be very successful for the dollar. The DXY index has updated a 20-year high of 114.72.
The Federal Reserve's super tight monetary policy cycle is an unquestionably strong positive fundamental factor for the dollar. As the representative of the Fed leadership and the head of the Atlanta Fed, Rafael Bostic, said last week, "the baseline scenario at the moment includes a rate hike of 75 basis points in November and a 50 bps increase in December." In his opinion, the lack of progress in curbing inflation means that by the end of the year the Fed will have to set rates in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%.
Anyway, the Fed's monetary policy at the moment remains perhaps the toughest among the world's largest central banks, and this fact cannot be ignored when determining the direction of the dynamics of the dollar and the stock market.
The beginning of next week promises to be calm: in China, Hong Kong, Australia, Germany, banks and exchanges will be closed on the occasion of the holidays, and, for Hong Kong and mainland China, the celebration will be delayed until October 10 in connection with the celebration of the Founding of the People's Republic of China.
Nevertheless, next week market participants will pay attention to the release of important macro statistics on the USA, Australia, the eurozone, Canada, as well as the results of the meetings of the central banks of Australia and New Zealand. However, investors will still focus on the release on Friday of key data from the US labor market (the US Department of Labor will present its monthly report for September).
Monday 03 October
- Germany. Index (PMI) of business activity in the manufacturing sector (final release)
This S&P Global report is an analysis of a survey of 800 purchasing managers that asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier shipments and inventory. Since purchasing managers have perhaps the most up-to-date information on the situation in the company, this indicator is an important indicator of the state of the German economy as a whole. This sector of the economy forms a significant part of Germany's GDP. A result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the EUR, below 50 is considered negative for the euro. Data worse than the forecast and/or the previous value will have a negative impact on the euro.
Previous values: 49.1, 49.3, 52.0, 54.8, 54.6, 56.9, 58.4, 59.8, 57.4, 57.4, 57.8, 58.4 , 62.6.
The level of influence on the markets (final release) is average.
- Eurozone. Composite Index (PMI) of business activity in the manufacturing sector (final issue)
The PMI Business Activity index in the eurozone manufacturing sector (from S&P Global) is an important indicator of the state of the entire European economy. A result above 50 is seen as positive and strengthens the EUR, below 50 - as negative for the euro. Data worse than the forecast and/or the previous value will have a negative impact on the euro. Previous values: 48.9, 49.8, 52.1, 54.6, 56.5, 58.2.
The level of influence on the markets (of the final issue) is average.
- Great Britain. Index (PMI) of business activity in the manufacturing sector (final issue)
The PMI business activity index in the UK manufacturing sector (from S&P Global) is an important indicator of the state of the British economy. If the data turn out to be worse than the forecast and the previous value, then the pound is likely to decline sharply in the short term. The data is better than the forecast and the previous value will have a positive impact on the pound. At the same time, a result above 50 is seen as positive and strengthens GBP, below 50 - as negative for GBP.
Previous values: 47.3, 52.1, 52.8, 54.6, 55.8, 55.2, 58.0, 57.3.
The level of influence on the markets (of the final issue) is average.
- Canada. Business Activity Index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector
The monthly S&P Global report will release (among other data) the PMI business activity index in the manufacturing sector of the Canadian economy, which is an important indicator of the state of this sector and the Canadian economy as a whole. The result above 50 is seen as positive and strengthens the CAD, below 50 - as negative for the Canadian dollar. Data above the value of 50 indicates an acceleration of activity, which has a positive effect on the quotes of the national currency. If the indicator drops below the forecast and, especially, below the value of 50, the dollar may weaken sharply in the short term.
Previous values of the indicator: 48.7, 52.5, 54.6, 56.8, 56.2, 58.9, 56.6, 56.2 ( in January 2022).
The level of influence on the markets is average.
- USA. Business activity index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector
The monthly report of the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) publishes (among other data) the PMI index of manufacturing activity in the US economy, which is an important indicator of the state of this sector and the American economy as a whole. A result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the USD, below 50 is considered negative for the US dollar. The data above the value of 50 indicate an acceleration of activity, which has a positive effect on the quotes of the national currency. If the indicator falls below the forecast and, especially, below the value of 50, the dollar may sharply weaken in the short term.
Previous indicator values: 52.8, 53.0, 56.1, 55.4, 57.1, 58.6, 57.6 (in January 2022).
September forecast: 52.8.
The level of influence on the markets is high.
Tuesday 04 October
- Australia. Reserve Bank of Australia meeting and interest rate decision. RBA accompanying statement
During the May meeting, RBA leaders made a surprise decision to raise the interest rate to contain inflation, which reached a 20-year high (in the 1st quarter of 2022, headline annual consumer price inflation in Australia was 5.1%, and core inflation was 3.7 %, with the target RBA level of 2% - 3% per year). The interest rate was raised by 0.25%, to 0.35%, for the first time in the last 11 years, and the forecast assumed an increase of only 0.15%.
As it said in an accompanying statement, "with the move towards full employment and data on prices and wages, some scaling back of the emergency monetary support provided during the pandemic is appropriate" and "the (central bank) board will do everything necessary to so that, over time, inflation in Australia will return to the target level." "This will require further interest rate hikes going forward," RBA Governor Philip Lowe said.
In June, the interest rate was again raised to 0.85%, in July to 1.35%, in August to 1.85%, and in September to 2.35%. At the same time, economists expect the RBA to raise its key rate to 2.6% by December 2022. This, in turn, creates prerequisites for further strengthening of the Australian dollar.
It is possible that at this meeting the central bank of Australia will again raise the interest rate, although unexpected decisions are possible, for example, a decrease or a stronger increase in the interest rate.
It is likely that the AUD will react positively to the decision to raise the interest rate, as market participants will receive confirmation of the seriousness of the RBA's intentions in its desire to tame the rising inflation in the country and reach the level of 2.05% - 2.6% by the end of the year, however, provided that the accompanying statement will not contain unexpected statements, for example, about the need to take a break before a further increase in the interest rate.
In any case, during the announcement of the RBA's decision on the interest rate, an increase in volatility in AUD quotes is expected.
If the RBA's accompanying statement signals a wait-and-see attitude, the Australian dollar is likely to come under pressure. However, the market's reaction to the RBA's decisions regarding the interest rate in the current situation may turn out to be completely unpredictable.
The level of influence on the markets is high.
- New Zealand. Dairy product price index
This leading indicator of the country's foreign trade balance reflects the weighted average price of 9 dairy products sold at an auction organized by Global Dairy Trade (GDT) in percentage terms and is usually published every 2 weeks.
The economy of New Zealand in many respects still has signs of raw materials, and the main share of New Zealand exports is dairy products and food products of animal origin (27%, according to data for 2020). Therefore, the decline in world prices for dairy products has a negative impact on NZD quotes, as it signals a decrease in export revenue coming to the budget of New Zealand.
Conversely, the growth of the dairy product price index has a positive effect on the NZD.
Previous values: +2.0%, +4.9%, -2.9%, -5.0%, -4.1%, -1.3%, +1.5%, -2.9%, -8.5%, -3.6%, -1.0%, -0.9%.
The level of influence on the markets is from low to medium.
Wednesday 05 October
- New Zealand. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decision on the interest rate. RBNZ Accompanying Statement
The level of interest rates is the most important factor in assessing the value of a currency. Investors look at most other economic indicators only to predict how rates will change in the future.
Following the meetings held in October and November, the RBNZ (for the first time in 7 years) raised the key interest rate to 0.50%, and then to 0.75%. In February and April 2022, the interest rate was raised again to 1.5% to ease inflation and curb rapidly rising house prices, and then to 2.0% and 2.5%. At the moment, the RBNZ interest rate is 3.0%. Earlier, the RBNZ stated that the economy no longer needs the current level of monetary stimulus.
At this meeting, the RBNZ may raise the interest rate again, as well as speak in favor of further interest rate increases at the next meetings.
In the accompanying statement and comments, the RBNZ management will give an explanation about the interest rate decision and comments on the economic conditions that contributed to the adoption of this decision. This is one of the main tools that the RBNZ uses to communicate with investors on monetary policy issues. Most importantly, it discusses economic prospects and offers hints about the results of future decisions.
During the announcement of the RBNZ's decision on rates and the accompanying statement, the volatility in the quotes of the New Zealand dollar may sharply increase. Earlier, the RBNZ stated that against the background of "many uncertainties," monetary policy "will remain soft in the foreseeable future," but "may be adjusted accordingly."
If the RBNZ signals a tendency to wait and see in the accompanying statement, then the New Zealand dollar is likely to be under pressure. However, the market reaction to the RBNZ's decisions regarding the interest rate in the current situation may be completely unpredictable.
- Germany. Index (PMI) of business activity in the service sector (final issue). Composite Index (PMI) of business activity (final issue)
This S&P Global report is an analysis of a survey of 800 purchasing managers, during which respondents are asked to assess the relative level of business conditions, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries and inventories. Since purchasing managers have, perhaps, the most up-to-date information about the situation in the company, this indicator is an important indicator of the state of the German economy as a whole. This sector of the economy forms a significant part of Germany's GDP. A result above 50 is seen as positive and strengthens the EUR, below 50 - as negative for the euro. Data worse than the forecast and/or the previous value will have a negative impact on the euro.
Previous values: 45.4, 49.7, 52.4, 55.0, 57.6, 56.1, 55.8, 52.2 (in January 2022)
The level of influence on the markets (final release) – from low to medium.
The composite PMI business activity index is an important indicator of the business environment and the general state of the German economy. A result above 50 is seen as positive and strengthens the EUR, below 50 - as negative for the euro. Data worse than the forecast and/or the previous value will have a negative impact on the euro.
Previous values: 45.9, 48.1, 51.3, 53.7, 54.3, 55.1, 55.6, 49.9, 52.2, 52.0, 55.5, 60.0, 62.4.
The level of influence on the markets (final release) – from low to medium.
- Eurozone. Composite Index (PMI) of business activity in the manufacturing sector (final issue)
The PMI Business Activity index in the eurozone manufacturing sector (from S&P Global) is an important indicator of the state of the entire European economy. A result above 50 is seen as positive and strengthens the EUR, below 50 - as negative for the euro. Data worse than the forecast and/or the previous value will have a negative impact on the euro. Previous values: 48.2, 49.9, 52.0, 54.8, 55.8, 54.9, 55.5, 52.3 (in January 2022).
The level of influence on the markets (final release) – from low to medium.
- UK. Index (PMI) of business activity in the services sector (final release)
The PMI in the UK services sector (S&P Global) is an important indicator of the state of the British economy. The service sector employs the majority of the UK's working-age population and contributes approximately 75% of GDP. The most important part of the service industry is still financial services. If the data turns out to be worse than the forecast and the previous value, then the pound is likely to fall sharply in the short term. Data better than the forecast and the previous value will have a positive impact on the pound. At the same time, a result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the GBP, below 50 is considered negative for the GBP.
Previous values: 49.2, 52.6, 54.3, 53.4, 58.9, 62.6, 60.5, 54.1 (in January 2022).
Level of influence on the markets (final release) - from low to medium.
- USA. ADP Private Sector Employment Report
ADP will present the monthly report on employment in the private sector of the US economy in August. This report usually has a strong impact on the market and dollar quotes, although, as a rule, there is no direct correlation with Non-Farm Payrolls. Strong data has a positive effect on the dollar; a decrease in the indicator can negatively affect it.
In any case, during the release of this report, there may be an increase in volatility in the market and, above all, in dollar quotes.
Previous values: 132,000 in August, 128,000 in May, 202,000 in April, 249,000 in March, 601,000 in February, 512,000 in January 2022.
The level of influence on the markets is medium to high.
- USA. PMI in the services sector of the economy (from ISM, Institute of Supply Management)
The ISM Index is the result of a monthly survey of the largest US companies from 62 segments of the service sector, which accounts for almost 90% of US GDP and about 80% of the country's working citizens.
Previous values: 56.9 in August, 56.7 in July, 55.3 in June, 55.9 in May, 57.1 in April, 58.3 in March, 56.5 in February, 59.9 in January .
September forecast: 56.5.
This is a high figure. A result above 50 indicates an increase in activity and is seen as a positive factor for the USD. However, a stronger relative decline in the index could negatively impact the dollar in the short term.
The level of influence on the markets is medium to high.
Thursday 06 October
- Australia. Trade balance
This indicator evaluates the difference in the volume of exports and imports. The excess of exports over imports leads to a trade surplus, which has a positive impact on the quotes of the national currency.
A decrease in the trade surplus may negatively affect the quotes of the national currency. Conversely, the growth of the trade surplus is a positive factor.
Previous values (in billion Australian dollars): 8,733 (July), 17,670 (June), 15,016 (May), 13,248 (April), 9,738 (March), 7,437 (February), 11,786 (January).
The level of influence on the markets is from low to medium.
- Eurozone. Retail sales
This report, published by Eurostat, reflects the change in retail sales. The change in the indicators of the retail sales report affects the indicator of consumer spending, indirectly indicating also the state of the European economy and the level of income of citizens.
A high result strengthens the euro, and vice versa, a low result weakens it.
Previous values: +0.3% (-0.9% yoy) in July, -1.2% (-3.7% yoy) in June, +0.2% (+0.2% yoy) in May, -1.3% (+3.9% yoy) in April, -0.4% (+0.8% in annual terms) in March, +0.3% (+5.0% in annual terms) in February, +0.2% (+7.8% in annual terms) in January. The data is better than the forecast, it is likely to have a positive impact on the euro.
The level of influence on the markets is from medium to high.
Forecast for August: +0.4% (-0.7% in annual terms).
- Eurozone. Information about the European Central Bank Monetary Policy meeting
This document provides an overview of the ECB's current policy with planned changes in the financial and monetary spheres. The release of this document may cause a surge in volatility in trading on the euro and on the European stock market.
Investors will carefully study the text of the minutes from the recent ECB meeting in order to catch additional signals regarding the QE program and the prospects for monetary policy. Recently, weak macro data have been coming from the eurozone, indicating a slowdown in the European economy and an increase in inflation, which, against the background of international trade conflicts and the difficult geopolitical situation in Europe, puts pressure on euro quotes and "ties the hands" of ECB leaders in actions regarding monetary policy. Nevertheless, volatility in the euro trading may increase sharply if the minutes contain unexpected statements or new information regarding the prospects for monetary policy.
The level of influence on the markets is from low to high.
- USA. Applications for unemployment benefits
The US Department of Labor will publish a weekly report on the state of the US labor market with data on the number of primary and secondary applications for unemployment benefits. The state of the labor market (together with data on GDP and inflation) is a key indicator for the Fed in determining the parameters of its monetary policy.
The result is higher than expected and the growth of the indicator indicates the weakness of the labor market, which negatively affects the US dollar. The drop in the indicator and its low value is a sign of the recovery of the labor market and may have a short-term positive impact on the USD.
It is expected that the number of initial and repeated applications for unemployment benefits will remain at lows corresponding to the lows of the period before the coronavirus pandemic, and this is also a positive factor for the dollar, indicating the stability of the US labor market.
Previous (weekly) values according to data on initial applications for unemployment benefits: 213,000, 208,000, 218,000, 228,000, 237,000, 245,000, 252,000, 248,000, 254,000, 261,000, 244,000, 235,000, 231,000, 232,000, 202,000, 211,000.
Previous (weekly) values according to data on repeated applications for unemployment benefits:
1,379,000, 1,401,000, 1,401,000, 1,437,000, 1,412,000, 1,434,000, 1,430,000, 1,420,000, 1,368,000, 1,384,000, 1,333,000, 1,372,000, 1,324,000, 1,331,000, 1,309,000, 1,309,000
The level of influence on the markets is from medium to high.
- Canada. Ivey PMI
A leading indicator of Canada's economic health, the Ivey PMI is based on a survey of about 175 purchasing managers that assesses the relative level of business conditions, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier shipments and inventory. An index value above 50 indicates an increase in purchase volume compared to the previous month and, accordingly, an increase in business activity, while an index value below 50 indicates a decrease in purchase volume and business activity compared to the previous month.
The indicator is above the value of 50 and has a relatively high indicator, which should positively affect the CAD.
Previous values: 60.9, 49.6, 62.2, 72.0, 66.3, 74.2, 60.6, 50.7 (in January 2022).
The level of influence on the markets is average.
- Canada. Speech by Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem
During the September meeting, the Bank of Canada once again raised interest rates (by 75 basis points to 3.25%). An accompanying statement from the bank said the bank was ready to "act decisively if required" to meet its 2.0% inflation target. While the military conflict in Ukraine has heightened uncertainty, putting additional upward pressure on energy and agricultural commodity prices, the Bank of Canada plans to continue its quantitative tightening and interest rate hikes.
It is likely that Macklem will once again explain the Bank of Canada's recent decision on the interest rate and, perhaps, give guidance on the prospects for monetary policy.
The tough tone of his speech will help strengthen the Canadian dollar. If he does not touch on the topic of central bank monetary policy, the reaction to his speech will be weak.
Friday 07 October
- Germany. Retail sales
The statistical office of Germany will publish a report with data on retail sales. The change in the indicators of the report on retail sales affects the indicator of consumer spending, indirectly indicating the state of the German economy and the level of income of citizens.
The German economy is the locomotive of the entire European economy. Therefore, euro quotes are very sensitive to the release of important macro statistics for Germany.
A high result usually strengthens the euro, and vice versa, a low result weakens it. Data better than the forecast and/or the previous value is likely to have a positive impact on the euro, but - in the short term.
Previous values: +1.9% (-2.6% yoy), -1.6% (-8.8% yoy), +0.6% (-3.6% yoy) , -5.4% (-0.4% yoy), -0.1% (-2.7% yoy), +0.3% (+7.0% yoy), + 2.0% (+10.3% yoy) in January 2022.
Forecast for August: -1.0% (-5.1% in annual terms),
The level of influence on the markets is medium to high.
- USA. NFP (number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector) and unemployment rate
The central event of Friday will be the release of the monthly report of the US Department of Labor with data on the main indicators of the country's labor market for September. Market participants are closely following this report, and market volatility during the period of its release usually rises sharply, especially in dollar quotes.
The growth of this report's figures (average hourly wages and the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector) and the decrease in the unemployment rate are positive for the dollar.
Previous values (average hourly wages/number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector/unemployment rate): +0.3% in August, +0.5% in July, +0.3% in June, May and April, +0.4% in March, 0% in February, +0.7% in January 2022 / 0.315 million in August, +0.528 million in July, +0.372 million in June, +0.390 million in May, +0.428 million in April, +0.431 million, +0.678 million in February, +0.467 million in January 2022 / 3.7% in August, 3.5% in July, 3.6% in June, May, April and March, 3.8 % in February, 4.0% in January 2022.
Forecast for September: +0.3% / +0.250 million / 3.7%, respectively.
The indicators can be called, if not strong, then very positive. At the same time, unemployment remains at minimal levels. In any case, the market reaction to the release of the US Department of Labor report may be unpredictable, because indicators of previous monthly reports can often be revised, and not always for the better.
With volatility traditionally expected to spike around the time this report is released, it may be best for conservative traders to stay out of the market during this time frame.
The level of influence on the markets is high.
- Canada. Labor market data
As for the Fed, data on GDP, inflation and the labor market are decisive for the Bank of Canada when planning the parameters of monetary policy.
Despite the fact that unemployment rose in Canada during the coronavirus pandemic (from the usual 5.6% - 5.7% to 7.8% in March and already up to 13.7% in May 2020), in recent months there have also been some progress. The decline in the unemployment rate is a positive factor for the CAD. If unemployment rises, the Canadian dollar will fall.
Previous unemployment rates: 5.4%, 4.9%, 4.9%, 5.1%, 5.2%, 5.3%, 5.5%, 6.5% (in January 2022) , which indicates an improvement in the situation in the Canadian labor market.
The level of influence on the markets is medium to high.
