Bitcoin has been unable to overcome the $20,381 resistance level for three days. It did not pass this mark on September 27, when many were counting on a "green September"
As the Whalemap data showed, the positions of large players does not make it possible to pass this border. Observations of the levels of buying and selling whales have shown that the area of about $20,380 will be important in order to open the path to further growth for the main cryptocurrency.
"So far, resistance at $20,380 (this is due to whales accumulating ~20,200 BTC) has worked quite well, with the latest rejection being almost within a dollar," the Whalemap team said.
"Our support remains unchanged after falling from 30,000. It stands at $19,174 and was formed back on June 18, 2022 as a result of a massive accumulation of ~101,300 BTC by whale wallets. There is also another resistance above $20,380 at $21,543. But first, quotes need to at least overcome $20,380."
Strong impulse breakout ahead
A popular crypto trader and analyst who writes under the pseudonym Kaleo said that the main cryptocurrency is expected to have a major impulse price breakout within a few months.
Bitcoin will move to the next accumulation range, reaching a high of $25,000, followed by a larger breakout.
He notes that since July, the price of the main cryptocurrency has fluctuated in the same range over the past three months. But now the quotes are preparing to break through the diagonal line of resistance almost a year long.
Kaleo draws attention to the fact that a similar trend was observed in February 2019, when a breakthrough above the linear resistance of the higher timeframe led to a "macro-market reversal". If this trend repeats, a 25 percent price increase is likely to occur before the breakout.
"A move similar to what we saw in February 2019, when the linear resistance was broken (about 25% higher), will push the price to about $25,000."
At the same time, the analyst predicts not an instantaneous acceleration to this range, but rather a steady rise.
"This range is a likely next target for BTC on the low time frame, given that it also converges with likely resistance at the highs of the August range. Instead of an immediate acceleration, the most likely scenario is a sharper bounce leading to log frame resistance on the high timeframe."
Kaleo predicts an impulse price breakthrough around mid-December.
"If we do get this accumulation in the range of $20,000 to $25,000, it means that the breakthrough of the momentum of higher volatility will occur around the middle of December, give or take a few weeks."
The analyst believes that now traders need to be patient, even though October is traditionally favorable for the crypto market. But both the Uptober and the expected upward breakthrough over the next few weeks requires caution. But the December breakthrough may lead to the renewal of record highs.
$20,000 is an important bottom for bitcoin
Another cryptanalyst drew attention to the fact that now the main cryptocurrency is trading on the "day of generations". And although its price may fall further from current levels, the difference will not be significant in the future.
The expert emphasized what the entire crypto community is currently puzzling over: it is unclear whether the bottom in this cycle is at around $20,000. However, it points out that the BTC price correction was influenced by a number of external factors that are unlikely to be repeated in the near future.
Against this backdrop, the $20,000 mark is not necessarily the "best price" to buy that will be available this cycle. But it doesn't matter if it is or not.
The expert compared it to the 2018 cycle, when BTC fell from $6,000 to $3,000. Investors who bought BTC at a price of $6,000 probably felt that they made a mistake when the price of the cryptocurrency halved to $3,000 within a few weeks. However, they made the right decision if they kept their coins and saw that by 2021 they had soared to $69,000.
The analyst added:
"I think the analogy can be extended to $20,000. Trying to figure out if it's a bottom or not is like flipping a coin. But I think that for a fairly long period of time, if you are right about the cryptocurrency, you probably won't regret buying at the price of $20,000."
Whether investors will regret buying about $20,000 depends on their "volatility and resistance to drawdowns in the interim period."
A unique combination of factors affecting bitcoin
The following factors are currently influencing risky asset markets, creating "incredibly unique conditions" that are unlikely to be repeated in our generation.
The US Federal Reserve, along with most central banks around the world, is raising interest rates in an attempt to reduce rising inflation, while the US dollar continues to strengthen against other fiat currencies.
Before all this happened, the economy stopped because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The analyst states that this "sequence of events in itself is so incomprehensible that probably only one can happen in our lifetime.
The analyst added:
"Crypto corrections, yes, can and will occur more often. But in terms of all this big basket of macro-liquidity related to trading, I think the number of times we will encounter this in our lifetime is very, very small."
On this basis, he concludes that BTC at a price of $ 20,000 represents an "opportunity" for investors who may "experience some drawdown."
It is noteworthy that there are other bullish factors. The amount of BTC stored on trading platforms has fallen to a four-year low after almost $700 million worth of bitcoin was withdrawn from trading platforms in one day.
