Bitcoin has not shown any signs of life in the last few weeks. For more than three months, the cryptocurrency has been in an outright flat, in a side channel limited by the levels of $ 18,500 and $ 24,350. And over time, the technical picture does not change absolutely. The only thing that should be noted is the sluggish and uncertain overcoming of the downward trend line. More precisely, the price has only slightly gone above this line, so this departure cannot be considered overcoming in the classical sense of the word. But there was no clear rebound either. We have already said earlier that if the trend line is overcome, the price will still remain inside the side channel. Thus, the flat will remain. Moreover, overcoming the trend line, in this case, will not mean either a signal to buy or that the cryptocurrency will not be able to overcome the $ 18,500 and continue to fall. The situation is almost a stalemate, as bitcoin does not move from its place.
We want to write something new about the fundamental background, but there is no news. Moreover, the general negativity associated with the "foundation" does not seem to interest traders too much anymore. At least they stopped trading. This fact suggests that the market is waiting for a new impulse. This impulse may be an important event or the entry of a major player into the market. For example, the Fed may raise the rate for the fourth time in a row by 0.75% at the next meeting. Maybe crypto traders are waiting for this? Or are they waiting for a new escalation of the conflict between the West and the Russian Federation? It's impossible to say for sure.
With the potential entry into the market of a major player who will start buying bitcoins or with the potential large sales of bitcoins by the current owner, everything is a little easier. It is simpler because it is impossible to predict this event. Therefore, it is possible to navigate only by "technique." Suppose a situation may arise with a fundamental or geopolitical background when there is an important event, but there is no reaction. In that case, there is nothing even to track with large transactions. As a result, traders still need to focus on technology and not ignore global fundamental and geopolitical events. We still believe that bitcoin will continue to fall.
In the 24-hour timeframe, the quotes of "bitcoin" could not overcome the $ 24,350, but they could not yet overcome the $18,500 (127.2% Fibonacci). Thus, we have a side channel, and it is unclear how much more time Bitcoin will spend on it. We recommend not rushing to open positions. It is better to wait for the price to exit this channel and only then open the corresponding transactions. Overcoming the $18,500 level will open the way for $12,426.
