The Australian dollar confuses market participants as soon as it can. On Friday, the movement range of the aussie amounted to more than 150 points, having reached three lines of the price channel drawn on the daily chart at once.
The Marlin Oscillator no longer has freedom of movement - it will either break above the upper boundary of its own channel under the influence of convergence with the price (pink line), or turn down from the upper boundary of the channel, breaking the convergence. In this case, the target of the downward movement will be the underlying line of the price channel around the level of 0.6130. The bulls' victory may be marked by reaching the target level of 0.6360, which they failed to do on Friday.
The price corrects slightly from the 0.6195 support on the 4-hour chart. What this means is not entirely clear, but the Marlin Oscillator has returned to the negative area and is pulling the price down. Overcoming the price of support 0.6195 will open the 0.6130 target.
Based on the combination of technical factors, the probability of a descending option is slightly higher than that of an ascending one: 55 versus 45.
