Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair
The test of 0.9764 happened when the MACD line was far below zero, so the downside potential should be limited. However, euro fell and tested 0.9717, which led to a sharp upswing of about 45 pips. No other signals appeared for the rest of the day.
Although the foreign trade balance report did not have a positive impact on euro, EUR/USD rose as the retail sales data in the US remained unchanged, increased risk appetite, albeit temporarily.
Today, the monthly report of the Bundesbank is due, and the speeches of ECB representatives could reiterate the need for a more stringent pricing policy. In the US, there will be reports on the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index and the US federal budget execution, but they will be of little interest. Expect trading to continue within the horizontal channel.
For long positions:
Buy euro when the quote reaches 0.9758 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 0.9807. Growth is likely to occur since the worst of data is behind and the market fully took them into account last week.
Take note that when buying, the MACD line should be above zero or is starting to rise from it. Euro can also be bought at 0.9730, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 0.9758 and 0.9807.
For short positions:
Sell euro when the quote reaches 0.9730 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 0.9683. Pressure will return after an unsuccessful attempt to hit new daily highs.
Take note that when selling, the MACD line should be below zero or is starting to move down from it. Euro can also be sold at 0.9758, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 0.9730 and 0.9683.
What's on the chart:
The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.
The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.
MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
