The European currency growth during the Asian trading session, as it turned out to be afterwards, was related to Friday\'s correctional rising, following the news from Dubai.
At the European session opening the pair started to decline gradually, fixing the day low hour after hour. The Eurozone fundamental data did not come to help. A slight correctional recovery had been observed only by the American trades closure, which was marked by a local minimum level of 1.4973. The session closed near 1.4998, having reached the base of the 50th figure, which says us about the probability of the upward trend continuation on the pair.
Totally, the Common European currency decreased by 5 points versus the US dollar, the trading volatility amounted to 113 pips.
The fundamental review:
The harmonized consumer price index in Eurozone was rather positive, it showed the upturn by +0.6% in November against the decline by -0.1% in October. The Eurozone CPI in November has risen for the first time since April of the current year.
The Italian PPI for October, 2009 came up by +0.1% to +0.7% year – on – year, compared to the forecast of +0.2% m/m to +0.8% y/y. The Conference Board leading indicator for the Eurozone increased by +0.9% in October.
Chicago PMI continued its rising, which has been observing since May, 2009, and appeared to be at the level of 56.10, compared to the previous figure at 54.20 for the last period. Analysts were looking for this index\'s fall to 53 points. Probably, these positive statistics were responsible for the pair\'s runup by the trading day closing.
The technical picture:
The resistance level, located at 1.5078, sustained the pressure which led to the decline near 1.4970, where the movement was met by a solid support level. The 200 day exponential moving average also restricted the pair\'s decrease which at that moment were at 1.4976.
Let me note, that currently the trades are in the middle of the ascendant price channel from Nov 03, 2009 ( the first low level is 1.4623, the second one – 1.4828 from Nov, 27). The short – term trend remains to be a sideway with the channel borders of 1.4970-1.5041.
MACD indicator is near the zero mark which also confirms the absence of any trand by this moment.
Bollinger bands, after yesterday\'s attempt to continue its Friday\'s upward dynamics, slightly changed the direction and now they are located near the levels of 1.4977 and 1.5038 respectively. I recommend to consider them as support and resistance levels.
Today\'s recommendations:
The support levels: 1.4970, 1.4935, 1.4883.
The resistance levels: 1.5041, 1.5078, 1.5148.
Today I recommend to buy the pair at 1- hour timeframe closing above the level of 1.5043 with the target — T/P 1.5106 and S/L 1.4999.
Sell the pair at 1- hour timeframe closing below the level of 1.4969, with the target — T/P 1.4905 and S/L 1.5008.
Best regards,
Analyst: M. Magdalinin.
