Bitcoin continues to trade almost flat, just above the $18,500 level. If earlier it at least "jumped" along the entire side channel of $18,500-$ 24,350, now for almost a month, it has been moving only along the level of $18,500. From above, it is "pressed" by the level of $20,500, where the Kijun-sen line previously passed. However, due to the long flat, it has already fallen and is not relevant at this time. Also, note that the downward trend line has been overcome, but this does not change since the "bitcoin" remains inside the side channel, even two. Therefore, it can spend as much time as it wants and then leave through any border. The border will show us in which direction the cryptocurrency intends to move further.
Thus, there is nothing left now but to wait for the completion of this absolute flat. If the cryptocurrency showed at least small movements inside the channel earlier, there are no movements. How to trade an instrument if it stands in one place? Perhaps "bitcoin" requires strong news or events that will force traders to trade actively. However, over the past 4 months (namely, how much bitcoin is in the flat), there have been meetings of central banks, speeches by representatives of the Fed, geopolitical news, and much more. All this failed to move the cryptocurrency from the "dead" point. Therefore, even the next Fed meeting, at which, very likely, the rate will rise again by 0.75%, does not guarantee a good movement.
Therefore, we can only monitor the situation and wait for Bitcoin to overcome one of the important levels. Without this, it is problematic to trade even on the lowest TF. Overcoming the trend line on the 24-hour TF does not give anything since the cryptocurrency remains flat. But now, there is plenty of time to consider a long-term strategy. We believe that bitcoin will resume its decline sooner or later, as the Fed will continue to raise the rate and keep it at the maximum level for a very long time. Inflation in the US is falling very slowly, so this scenario is the most logical. Therefore, there will not be a favorable fundamental background for a long time.
In the 24-hour timeframe, the quotes of "bitcoin" could not overcome the $ 24,350, but they also cannot overcome the $18,500 (127.2% Fibonacci). Thus, we have a side channel, and it is unclear how much time Bitcoin will spend on it. We recommend not rushing to open positions. It is better to wait for the price to exit this channel and only then open the corresponding transactions. Overcoming the $18,500 level will take you to the $12,426 level.
