This week, three of the world's largest central banks (Canada, the Eurozone, and Japan) will meet at once, and the meeting of the Bank of Canada will take place today. At 14:00 (GMT), the interest rate decision will be published, and at 15:00 (GMT), a press conference of the Bank of Canada will begin, which will also cause an increase in volatility in the foreign exchange market, primarily and of course in CAD quotes and the USD/CAD pair, respectively.
Tomorrow, investors' attention will be on the meeting of the ECB. It is widely expected that the ECB leaders will once again raise the deposit and refinancing rate by 75 basis points (for deposits up to 1.50% and the refinancing rate up to 2.00%).
Inflation is growing rapidly in the eurozone: annual inflation in September was 9.9%, the base annual CPI increased by +4.8%. According to economists, in order to contain the growth of inflation fueled by the energy crisis in Europe, the ECB will have to raise deposit and refinancing rates to 2.00% and 2.50%, respectively, by the end of the year. At the same time, the ECB is in a difficult situation, because the Eurozone economy is facing a recession, with the probability of its onset within a year, and the nature of the recession may be deep and prolonged, given the military conflict in Ukraine and the crisis in the European energy market.
Despite the information in the media about the results of the EU leaders' summit held the day before, at which "it was possible to reach a general agreement in the field of energy security" with the prospect of creating a cartel of European gas buyers (it will deal with purchases and subsequent distribution), the shortage of gas and oil in Europe will continue to promote inflation. Whether the ECB, which is moving with cautious steps so far, will be able to cope with it, while inflation exceeds the target level by five times, is an open question.
Although tomorrow the ECB will raise its key rates by 0.75%, this increase will not provide significant and long-term support for the euro, some economists say, especially since the euro has again returned (after a deep fall) to parity with the dollar. Today, the pair reached an intraday and almost 6-week high of 1.0047. Further growth of the EUR/USD pair will likely be fraught with significant difficulties, given the approaching winter and the gas shortage, which may become even tougher for Europe this year amid the growing recovery of the Chinese economy and its growing need for energy. Europe will have to look for replacements for Russian gas in a busy winter period and in the face of competitive buyers.
As of writing, EUR/USD is trading near the 1.0025 mark, breaking into the short-term bull market zone, above the resistance levels 0.9910, 0.9858, 0.9846.
Despite the current growth, which can be considered corrective for the time being, the downward dynamics of the EUR/USD remains in general, and from a fundamental point of view, we should expect a resumption of decline, at least, and, as a maximum, a further fall of the pair towards 20-year lows, when it was trading near 0.8700, 0.8600.
