Bitcoin continues to trade almost flat above the $18,500 level. Although the cryptocurrency has increased by about 1.5-2 thousand dollars between yesterday and today, nothing has changed in its technical picture. Recall that the descending trend line has ceased to be relevant, but two side channels with a single lower limit of $ 18,500 remained relevant, which the cryptocurrency could not overcome attempts from 15. At the moment, we have only seen another rebound from this level with an increase to the upper limit of the lower side channel of $ 20,500. Thus, it is too early to say that the "bearish" trend is over. Even if bitcoin continues to grow above the level of $ 20,500, the border of another side channel of $24,350 is waiting for it from above. Until Bitcoin leaves both channels, we expect a flat market.
Why did cryptocurrencies suddenly start to grow yesterday? To understand this, you need to pay attention to the foreign exchange market, where the euro and the pound have been growing for no reason for two days in a row, and the dollar is falling. At the same time, the US stock market is growing, which mainly fell in 2022. There is an increase in risk appetite among traders and investors, but at the same time, such movements can only be an "acceleration" before a new fall. After all, please note that there were no grounds for the growth of "bitcoin," there were no grounds for the growth of funds, and there were no grounds for the growth of European currencies either. Important macroeconomic statistics were not published this week, and there was no important news or events. Therefore, the growth in all of the above cases is purely technical.
Since the bitcoin price has been flat for 4 months, we can now observe a banal acceleration before a new test of the $18,500 level. We remind you that the Fed's rate hike is still at least a few months away, and therefore the fundamental background will remain difficult for cryptocurrencies in the near future. Also note that small purchases of bitcoin are possible with bounces from $ 18,500, but it is not necessary to count on strong growth now. We do not believe that the departure of 1.5–2 thousand dollars from the lows of the year can be regarded as the passage of the "bottom".
For several months, the 24-hour price of "bitcoin" has been unable to breach the level of $ 18,500 (127.2% Fibonacci). Thus, we have a side channel and it is unclear how much more time Bitcoin will spend on it. We recommend not rushing to open positions. It is better to wait for the price to exit this channel, and only then open the corresponding deals. Overcoming the $18,500 level will take you to the $12,426 level.
