Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair
The test of 0.9772 occurred at the time when the MACD line went down a lot from zero, which limited the downside potential of the pair. Similarly, when the level of 0.9805 was tested, the MACD line was far above zero, limiting the upside potential. Only after the US data and a re-test of 0.9805 did the MACD line confirmed the correct entry point for buying euro, which resulted in an increase of 60 pips. Selling for a rebound at 0.9868 led to a correction of around 20 pips.
The unemployment rate in the US jumped, while the number of non-farm payrolls rose much less in October than in September last year. As a result, a massive sell-off as seen in dollar last Friday
Today, ECB members Christine Lagarde and Fabio Panetta will speak, which could affect the dynamics of markets. Statements that the bank will be cautious about further monetary policy are likely to limit the upside potential of EUR/USD. Meanwhile, data on investor confidence from Sentix will not cause major changes in the market. Speeches by FOMC members Loretta Mester and Susan Collins will also be of little interest.
For long positions:
Buy euro when the quote reaches 0.9949 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0016. Growth will occur if data from the Euro area exceed expectations. But take note that when buying, the MACD line should be above zero or is starting to rise from it.
Euro can also be bought at 0.9905, however, the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 0.9949 and 1.0016.
For short positions:
Sell euro when the quote reaches 0.9905 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 0.9851. Pressure will return in the event of hawkish statements from the Fed, although this is unlikely. Take note that when selling, the MACD line should be below zero or is starting to move down from it.
Euro can also be sold at 0.9949, however, the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 0.9772 and 0.9712.
What's on the chart:
The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.
The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.
MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
